The view
AppLovin closed at $409.10 on 13 November 2026. The share price change over the past year is −30.1%, the close sits +0.8% from its 200-day average, and it stands 81.7% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $205.56, a gap of −49.8%, so the price sits well above intrinsic value. The 21-session view expects +1.8%, with a probability of a rise of 55%. The 63-session view expects +3.69%.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans up only barely. It expects +1.8%, with a probability of a rise of 55%, just under half, inside a band from −33.4% to +37%. On the supportive side, quality ranks among the highest in the S&P 500 and strength against its sector is near the top. Several chart-pattern anomaly measures, including volume and momentum anomalies, are at their highest in five years, which marks unusual activity rather than a direction. Against the lean, filing sentiment is among the lowest, earnings momentum is at a five-year low, and the market regime is strong risk-off. Past situations like today's are history, not a forecast. They returned a median +2.8% over the next 21 sessions and rose in 62% of cases, a more positive picture than the near-flat published lean.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The 63-session view also leans up, expecting +3.69% within a wide band from −51.3% to +58.7%. Both horizons therefore point the same way, with the longer one leaning more clearly. The operating base carries it: revenue growth of +55.5%, operating cash flow of $4.90B and return on equity of 210.1%, with the close only +0.8% from its 200-day average after a long decline. Volatility ranks among the highest in the S&P 500 and the lag-one autocorrelation of returns is at a five-year high, which widens the band. Past situations like today's, which are history rather than a forecast, rose in 66% of cases over 63 sessions with a median of +10.5%. That history agrees with the lean but is more positive than the model.
The long term
The long-term case is split. Intrinsic value stands at $205.56, a gap of −49.8% against the price, and the value family ranks low in the S&P 500, weighed down by a price-to-book of 29.17. Yet the price-to-earnings multiple of 19.56 sits only at percentile 56 in the sector, return on equity is 210.1% and operating cash flow reached $4.90B. The balance sheet is the weak point: debt to equity of 1.07 is at percentile 94 in the sector, though balance sheet health on the macro measure is at a five-year high and the Piotroski score is 6. Past situations like today's rose over the following year in 72% of cases with a median of +42.2%. That history reflects momentum and quality, while the intrinsic value gap weighs on the long-term case.
How sure we are
Each horizon deserves limited weight. On this name, 47% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, slightly under the base rate of about half, so the record adds little conviction. The past situations rest on 200 cases matched on seven measures only, not on the 595 features computed today. The bands are very wide: −33.4% to +37% over 21 sessions and −51.3% to +58.7% over 63 sessions. Both expected returns sit near the middle of a broad range. Short-sale volume at percentile 25 in the sector shows no crowding that would sharpen the signal.