NASDAQ · Health Care · Life Sciences Tools & Services · USD

ILMN Illumina

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207.01−2.54 (−1.21%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Illumina (ILMN) closed at $207.01 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +1.77% over 21 sessions, with a 53% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $79.52, a gap of −61.6% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in ILMN was 8.3% of the float, 3.7 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $112.65 to $309.35.
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Overlay
1Y +69.71% · from $121.98 to $207.01
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $79.52, above this rangesessions ahead →21162.48245.65287.24121.98207.01
Previous close209.55
Open209.08
Day’s range202.60 – 209.08
52-week range112.65 – 309.35
Volume1,229,200
Avg. volume, 3 months2,869,829
Market cap$31.30B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.34
P/E ratio (TTM)46.35
EPS (TTM)5.83
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value79.52
Gap to intrinsic value−61.6%
21-session view+1.77%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions53%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+1.77% expected · 53 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+2.44% expected · band −43.3% to +48.2%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $79.52, 62% below the close
ConfidenceLow41% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Illumina closed at $207.01 on 13 November 2026, after a share price change of +69.7% over the past year. The model's intrinsic value sits at $79.52, a gap of −61.6% against the price, so the stock trades well above what the valuation blend supports. The published 21-session view leans slightly up at +1.77%, with a probability of a rise of 53%. The published 63-session view also leans up, at +2.44%. The market regime is strong risk-off.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The published 21-session view leans up, but only by +1.77%, with a probability of a rise of 53%. The case on that side rests on momentum and quality, both high in the fingerprint, and the close sitting +15.3% from its 200-day average and 83.8% above its 52-week low. Against it, short-term acceleration is the lowest in five years, and downside deviation and tail risk are the highest in five years. The band runs from −28.6% to +32.1%. History, not a forecast: the 200 past situations like today's returned a median of +0.5% over the next 21 sessions and rose in 51% of cases. That is close to a coin toss, so history barely supports the lean.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view leans up at +2.44%, inside a very wide band from −43.3% to +48.2%. It points the same way as the 21-session view, carried by strong momentum, high quality and supportive insider and block-holder flows. The strong risk-off regime and volatility that is the highest in five years cut against it, and several volume and price anomaly measures sit at five-year extremes, a sign of an unusually stretched tape. As history rather than forecast, past situations like today's returned a median of +2.5% over the next 63 sessions and rose in 57% of cases, a mild agreement with the lean.

The long term

The long-term case is weaker than the near-term views. Intrinsic value of $79.52 sits −61.6% from the price, and the multiple of 46.35 earnings places Illumina at percentile 79 in its sector, with price to book at 12.98. The operating side is solid: return on equity of 32.4%, debt to equity of 0.57 at percentile 59, a Piotroski score of 7, and operating cash flow of $1.23B, though revenue growth is only +4.2%. History, not a forecast: past situations like today's returned a median of −14.1% over the following year and rose in 40% of cases. Momentum drives the near-term lean, while valuation drives the longer horizons.

How sure we are

Each horizon deserves limited weight. On this name, 41% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, below the base rate of about half across all names, so the short-term record here is weak. The past-situation history rests on 200 cases matched on seven measures, not on the 603 features in today's fingerprint. The bands are wide: −28.6% to +32.1% at the 21-session horizon and −43.3% to +48.2% at the 63-session horizon, both far larger than the expected returns themselves. Short-sale volume at percentile 43 in the sector shows no crowding signal either way.

Written by our research agent from 603 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 4Distance
Insider trades, 30 daysNet insider value at percentile 1 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 46.35 · percentile 84 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $79.52 · gap −61.6% · percentile 17 in the sector
Revenue growth+4.2% a year · percentile 25 in the sector
For the stock · 5Distance
Return on equity32.4% · percentile 86 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 58 in the sector
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 43 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.57 · percentile 43 in the sector
Forecast, next month+1.77% · 53 in 100 chance of rising

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+1.77%53 in 100
63 sessions+2.44%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources2 of 5 back the view
ValuationAgainstGap to intrinsic value −61.6% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Quantile modelweight 22%−0.8%Relative valuationweight 19%+4.85%
603 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Health Care · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to ILMN’s +1.77%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Momentum−0.12%
Value−0.07%
Liquidity
Macro sensitivity
Sector-relative
Sentiment
Volatility
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Gap type Momentump95 → p18−77
Insider sell value 30d Flowsp29 → p98+69
Gapless return 1d Momentump93 → p25−68
Net insider value, 30 days Flowsp68 → p2−66
Range compression ratio Volatilityp67 → p6−61
Xreg cross asset trend agree sector Patternsp72 → p11−61
Xreg cross asset trend agree spy Patternsp71 → p11−60

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum45.23p78p910Untested
Value compositeValue0.242p12p160Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.724p91p1000Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.684p98p1000Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p76p56+1Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.507p59p42+2Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows−$61.15Mp2p96−66None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.072p41p230Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.520p17p50None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.268p0p10Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum7.18p29p69−10None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.785p85p1000Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.848p98p980Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.004p34p80None · 24/32 yrs
Days to coverCrowding3.67p66p430None · 4/6 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+0.5%
Share that rose51%
Low end (q10)−15.5%
High end (q90)+17.9%
SCCO Mar 2026+9%
STRL Dec 2025+1.1%
COIN Aug 2025+12.5%
ALXN Mar 2014+1.8%

Where ILMN ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 27 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 60 Health Care members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places ILMN among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

46.35×P/EHigher than 84% of the sectorSector percentile 84
12.98×Price / bookHigher than 90% of the sectorSector percentile 90
—EV / EBITDASector median 13.39×
−61.6%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 83% of the sectorSector percentile 17
73.5%Gross marginHigher than 90% of the sectorSector percentile 90
32.4%Return on equityHigher than 86% of the sectorSector percentile 86
0.57Debt / equityLower than 57% of the sectorSector percentile 43
7 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$31.30B
Enterprise value$41.32B
Revenue, ttm$4.54B
Net income, ttm$880.86M
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm$5.83
Book value / share$20.80
Shares outstanding151.2M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$79.52

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

35.0RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
48%In 52-week rangeLow $112.65, high $309.35Low to high, past year
68%In today’s rangeRange $202.60 to $209.08Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.43×Volume vs average1.23M shares against 2.87M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.34Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
90.2%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+1.77%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −28.6% to +32.1% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
53%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−29.5%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −82.9%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$209.55
Open$209.08
Day’s range$202.60 – $209.08
52-week range$112.65 – $309.35
Volume1.23M
Avg. volume, 3M2.87M
1-year change+69.71%
ATR (14)$17.07

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest8.02M
Short float8.3%
Days to cover3.7
Change since previous settlement+1.7%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p43 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$215.4826,950$5.81M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$218.5023,064$5.04M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$212.9715,215$3.24M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$219.5512,305$2.70M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$217.658,613$1.87M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$216.645,122$1.11M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$220.454,618$1.02M
11 Nov 2026Meister Keith A. DirectorSale$221.091,843$407.47K

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on ILMN

41% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Illumina called the direction correctly.

−30%−3%−15%−1.5%0%0%+15%+1.5%+30%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

ILMN, 21 sessions40.6%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · ILMN sits in decile 7 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−3.5%−80%−1.7%−55%0%−30%+1.8%−5%+3.5%+20%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewILMNACRLDHRIQVMTDTECHTMOWAT
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
ILMN Illumina$207.01$31.30B46.4+69.7%−61.6%+1.77%positive8.3%
A Agilent Technologies$173.96$49.04B27.2+15.5%−30.5%+1.67%positive2%
CRL Charles River Laboratories$337.97$16.19B348.0+97.1%−64.6%+1.96%positive6.1%
DHR Danaher$233.02$163.94B36.7+6.8%−69.2%−0.38%negative1.3%
IQV IQVIA$265.12$43.69B32.6+20%+0.8%+1.94%positive1.8%
MTD Mettler Toledo$1,738.91$34.59B32.7+20.1%−30.2%+0.23%positive3%
TECH Bio-Techne$72.80$11.44B66.3+19.1%−41.9%+1.17%positive5%
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific$700.22$259.44B35.6+19.4%−61.1%−0.38%negative1.3%
WAT Waters$460.25$45.24B89,181.8+18.8%−42%+3.05%positive5.6%

Questions about ILMN

What is the intrinsic value of Illumina stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for ILMN is $79.52 per share against a $207.01 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −61.6%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the ILMN stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for ILMN is +1.77%, with a band from −28.6% to +32.1% and a 53% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +2.44%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for ILMN been?

41% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Illumina called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.