Company analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) forecast and analysis

Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure · Reading of October 8, 2026

Last close
$32.68
Fair value (DCF)
$29.08

Gap to fair value −11%

21-session view
−1.95%

band −18.6% to +14.7%

63-session view
−2.53%
Market regime
strong risk-off

The reading in brief

As of October 8, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, a Consumer Discretionary name in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry, closed at $32.68 against a model fair value of $29.08, so fair value sits below the price with a gap of −11%. The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −1.95% and a probability of a rise of only 7%. Yet the band from −18.6% to +14.7% is wide and spans both signs. The 63-session view of −2.53% points the same way. The reading comes in a strong risk-off market regime. The record on this name is long but modest, with 44% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts matching the direction.

Written automatically from the figures on this page; every figure is filled in from the day's data.

Research cockpit

Each source's reading of CMG today, the stance it takes against the published view, and what would change it. The same board subscribers open in the console.

supports
−11.0%value gap · DCF against pricefair value $29 vs $32.68 · the DCF's own chance it is undervalued: 43%supports at −10% or less · against at +10% or more
against
+22unified technical score3-session run vs industry +4.24%, higher than 91% of sector; such runs have tended to fadesupports at −15 or less · against at +15 or more
mixed
6 / 9Piotroski F-scoreROIC 18.1% · Altman-Z 4.43 · Q2 period to Jun 30, 2026supports at 3 or less · against at 7 or more
supports
15%recommended exposuremarket-wide strong risk off · the regime's tilt for Consumer Discretionary −0.36 · as of Oct 8, 2026supports at 40% or less · against at 75% or more
supports
19 analystscovering in the last 180 days · our own estimate recordhigher than 90% of sector · net rating changes −0.20 over 63 sessions · vendor consensus unavailablesupports in the most-covered 40% of its sector · against in the least-covered 40% — the most-covered fifth beat the median stock 49 times in 100 over three months, the least-covered 52 (since 2012)

Model reading

what the published belief says · what only a portfolio can add
leans down−1.95%3 of 5 sources for · 21d belief · 11 voices
Price impactmeasured · this symbol
higher than 45% of sector (Kyle λ)Names with higher price impact have done slightly worse over the next week (the ordering held in 27 of 32 years). Order size itself is a portfolio decision.
Liquidity vs edgemeasured · this symbol
more liquid than 88% of sector (Amihud)Less liquid names have earned more over three months (the ordering held in 25 of 32 years). The portfolio prices the order.
Band legs · q10 / q9021 sessions
−18.6% / +14.7%
Risk checksper portfolio
Run in the portfolio, not on a symbol — 13 checks (position ceiling, gross exposure, sector concentration …)
Regime overridemarket-wide · Oct 8, 2026
scaled15% exposure
Reliability21 sessions
0.000 = the 21-session head has not yet earned a reliability score on settled outcomes.
Price impact in fifths · the next week50%56%44%50lowest50low50middle▲ now50high49highest
Illiquidity in fifths · the next three months50%56%44%48lowest▲ now49low50middle51high52highest
Bars: out of 100 stocks in each fifth of all stocks, how many beat the median stock. The dashed line is 50, a coin flip; the axis is zoomed to 44–56. ▲ = where CMG sits today.
InsightProven signal
What it meansCMG's price impact over 5 sessions is higher than 45% of sector; by illiquidity it is more liquid than 88% of sector. Both are measured on CMG itself, not a portfolio.
What history saysOut of 100 stocks with the highest price impact, 49 beat the median stock over the next week; with the lowest, 50. CMG sits in the middle fifth today. That ordering held in 27 of 32 years since 1995. On average the lowest fifth out-earned the highest by 0.13 points over the next week. Over the next three months 52 in 100 of the least liquid fifth beat the median stock, against 48 of the most liquid. CMG sits in the lowest fifth for illiquidity.
How to use itThese describe what an order in CMG would face, not which way it goes. Order size stays a portfolio decision.
For the curious: Kyle λ at 5 sessions: rank IC −0.011 · t −6.3 · 27/32 years · 1,633 weekly samples since 1995 · Amihud at 63 sessions: rank IC +0.044 · t +3.9 · 25/32 years · 1,621 weekly samples since 1995

Published belief band

q10 — μ — q90 per horizon · conformal · rank among names

Square = expected return, bar = the model's q10–q90 range, right = where the expected return ranks among 1,303 names. A hollow square has no published range — do not size on it.

Exit map

Where CMG's 21-session band legs sit against today's close is in the console, with the valuation, technical, fundamentals and regime tabs.

Why it leans down, not up

posterior against a 51.7% base rate
P(up)0.07below a coin flip
E[r]−1.95%expected, 21 sessions
σ10.12%spread of outcomes
Rankp65of 1,303 names
E[r] / σ−0.19reward per unit of spread
Evidence balance · the belief's own arithmeticfor +0.00% · against −2.55% · net −2.55%Each voice's expected return times its weight; the rows sum exactly to the belief.
Outside evidence · measured, not voting
lowest in sectorhighest
Run vs industry · 3 sessionshigher than 91% of sectorfavours the belief
Beat its factors · 21 sessionshigher than 43% of sectorsits in the middle
Unusual volume · vs its yearthe highest in its sectorleans against it
Price impact (Kyle λ)higher than 45% of sectorsits in the middle
Illiquidity (Amihud)higher than 12% of sectorfavours the belief
Short-sale volume · 21 sessionshigher than 8% of sectorleans against it
Analysts coveringhigher than 90% of sectorfavours the belief
Tinted half = the side of the sector that has gone on to do better on that measure, in the evidence study since 1995, 2009, 2012. These do not enter the belief's arithmetic — they tell you whether the market's own record agrees with it.
Conditional hit rate · how the prior updatesPlatform-wide, not CMG's own record. The tick is the base rate; a top-decile belief has not beaten it. CMG sits in decile 7 today.
InsightModel output
What it meansThe belief leans down (−1.95%) and its own P(up) is 0.07: a negative average and a worse-than-even chance of rising.
What history saysThe expected return ranks higher than 65% of 1,303 names today. On settled outcomes a top-decile belief has been right 51.0% of the time against 51.7% for every name. Proven measures read outside the belief: 7 — favouring it, 3; leaning against it, 2. The strongest of them, Run vs industry · 3 sessions, held its ordering in 32 of 32 years since 1995.
How to use itRead the rank and the range before the number; the band legs, not the average, say how wide the outcomes run.
For the curious: direction_prob, mu, sigma from ii_belief · rank among 1,303 names · base rate from the signal-validation study, platform-wide, Sep 2, 2025 to Sep 9, 2026

What would change this reading

current reading measured · the trigger's source named
The fair-value gap rises above −10%−11.0% todaythe valuation rule on this tab
The 3-session run falls back to the sector middlehigher than 91% of sector todayproven reversal · the next week
Short-sale volume rises into the top half of the sectorhigher than 8% of sector · higher than 70% of its past yearproven · one to three months
Voice agreement drops11 voices · 92% consistentportfolio policy sets the level
The market regime turns more risk-offstrong risk off todayregime tab · market-wide

Voice agreement · 21d

5 scored voices · belief as of Oct 8, 2026
bundle52%right on direction · n 294latest −0.2%
catboost54%right on direction · n 295latest −6.2%
lstm57%right on direction · n 295latest −1.9%
mimo55%right on direction · n 295latest −6.1%
quantile58%right on direction · n 295latest −3.2%

How often each model called CMG's 21-session direction right on settled outcomes. Below 60 settled calls the figure is greyed: too few to judge.

Valuation & Predictions, Technical Structure, Fundamentals & Filings and Regime are in the console.

Forecast record on CMG

44% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts on Chipotle Mexican Grill called the direction correctly.

−2.5%0%+2.5%−24.3%0%+24.3%Published 21-session view
What happened ↑

Each square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against the return that followed.

Same industry

All Consumer Discretionary companies

Questions about CMG

What is the fair value of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock?
The model's discounted-cash-flow fair value for CMG is $29.08 per share against a $32.68 close on October 8, 2026, a gap of −11%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.
What is the CMG stock forecast?
The published 21-session view for CMG is −1.95%, with a band from −18.6% to +14.7%; over 63 sessions it is −2.53%. These are probabilities from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.
How accurate have the forecasts for CMG been?
44% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts on Chipotle Mexican Grill called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

A dated model reading, not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilities and can be wrong.

How the fair value is estimatedHow every forecast is testedDisclosures