The view
EchoStar closed at $100.00 on 13 November 2026, up +43.6% over the past year and 52.1% above its 52-week low, yet sitting −5.2% from its 200-day average after a strong run. The Intrinsic Value model places value at $116.01, a gap of +16% to the price, so the price sits below the model's estimate. The published 21-session view expects +2.88%, with a probability of a rise of 70%. The published 63-session view expects +0.86%. Both lean up, and both are read inside a strong risk-off market regime.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans up, but only slightly, at +2.88% with a probability of a rise of 70%, inside a wide band from −21.9% to +27.6%. The most unusual facts sit on the upside. Aroon up and the ten-day Donchian breakout are at the highest of EchoStar's own last five years, and a cluster of chart-pattern measures on price, momentum and volume is also at a five-year extreme. The flows family ranks high in the S&P 500, and short-sale volume sits at percentile 15 in the sector, so short pressure is light. Against this stand the strong risk-off market regime and volatility that ranks high among large companies. History, not a forecast: across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +2.7% and 61% rose, which agrees with the lean.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The published 63-session view also leans up, at +0.86%, with a band from −35.7% to +37.4%. It points the same way as the 21-session view of +2.88%, so the two horizons do not conflict here; they can diverge on other names because short horizons weigh momentum and chart signals more, while longer ones lean more on valuation. Over three months the case rests more on the intrinsic value gap of +16% and an earnings multiple at percentile 6 in the sector, among the lowest there, alongside the strong momentum readings. History, not a forecast: across 200 similar past situations, the median return over the next 63 sessions was +8.2% and 70% rose, which supports the lean, though the band shows outcomes well on either side.
The long term
The long-term case rests on intrinsic value of $116.01 against a price of $100.00, a gap of +16%. The earnings multiple of 2.88 sits at percentile 6 in the sector, and price-to-book is 1.85. Return on equity is 82.8%, debt to equity is 0.57 at percentile 41 in the sector, and the Piotroski score is 5, a middling reading. The conflict is revenue growth of −68.8%: earnings and returns on capital look very strong while sales have contracted sharply, which suggests current profits are not carried by recurring revenue and makes the low multiple less reliable as a guide. No cash flow figure is available to settle this. History, not a forecast: similar past situations returned a median +17.7% over the following year, and 70% rose.
How sure we are
The record argues for restraint. On EchoStar, 42% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, below the base rate of about half across all names, so the model has read this stock worse than a coin toss so far. The past-situation history rests on 200 cases, a reasonable sample, but they were matched on only seven measures, not the 619 features in today's fingerprint. The bands are very wide, from −21.9% to +27.6% over 21 sessions and −35.7% to +37.4% over 63 sessions, far larger than the expected returns. Each horizon deserves modest weight, the near term least given the weak record.