Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.
In short
How the two compare
On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Costco is the larger company by market value ($436.75B against $34.01B). Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Dollar General +24.5%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The operating margin is 3.9% for Costco and 9% for Dollar General. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.08% for Costco, with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.05% for Dollar General, with a 69% chance. Costco's long-run fair value is $905.48, a gap of −7.9% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Dollar General's long-run fair value is $115.23, a gap of −8.7% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral.
Model view
What the model expects
Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.
Model readings:
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
COST−0.08%
DG−0.05%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
COST34%
DG69%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
COST−1.72%
DG−0.64%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
COST−19.3% to +15.8%
DG−24.2% to +22.9%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
COST$905.4828 Oct 2026
DG$115.2328 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
COST−7.9%
DG−8.7%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
COST54.6%of 269
DG52.4%of 269
Price performance
How the prices moved
Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.
Closes to
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
COST+6.3%
DG+2.9%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
COST−1.3%
DG+11.1%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
COST+14.5%
DG−3.6%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
COST+6.3%
DG+24.5%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
COST+120.7%
DG−36.4%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
COST−6.4 pts
DG+11.8 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
COST56%close $982.73 in $840.35 to $1,094.76
DG51%close $126.17 in $93.78 to $156.68
Against the 200-day average
COST+1.4%
DG+0.6%
Valuation
What the market pays
Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.
Filings: quarter to (COST), (DG)
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Market value
COST$436.75B28 Oct 2026
DG$34.01B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
COST$403.90B30 Aug 2026
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
P/Elatest filed
COST45.5
DG—Not measured today.
Price to book
COST11.74
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
EV / EBITDA
COST28.13
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Free cash flow yield
COST2.23%
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Dividend yield
COST0.25%
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Profitability
How much of revenue becomes profit
Margins and returns on capital from the latest filing; revenue, net income and earnings per share over the trailing twelve months.
Filings: quarter to (COST), (DG)
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Gross margin
COST12.8%
DG28.2%
Operating margin
COST3.9%
DG9%
Net margin
COST3%
DG5.6%
Return on equity
COST25.8%
DG23.7%
Return on invested capital
COST22.1%
DG28.3%
Revenuetrailing twelve months
COST$303.15B
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Net incometrailing twelve months
COST$9.23B
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Earnings per sharetrailing twelve months
COST$20.76
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Growth
How fast the business grew
Change against the same quarter a year earlier.
Filings: quarter to (COST), (DG)
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Revenue growthyear over year
COST+10.1%
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Earnings growthyear over year
COST+13.9%
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Free cash flow growthyear over year
COST+19.7%
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Financial health
Balance sheet and quality scores
Leverage, liquidity and two published scores: Altman Z (below 1.8 the distress zone, above 3 the safe zone) and Piotroski F (0 to 9).
Filings: quarter to (COST), (DG)
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Debt to equity
COST0.11
DG0.00
Current ratiocurrent assets over current liabilities
COST1.06
DG2.32
Altman Z-score
COST9.06
DG—Not in the latest filing data.
Piotroski F-scoreout of 9
COST7 of 9
DG2 of 9
Trading and risk
How the shares trade
Volatility, sensitivity to the market, the deepest fall, short interest and how closely the two move together.
Closes to ; FINRA settlement
MeasureCostco · COSTDollar General · DG
Volatility21 sessions, annualised
COST17.6%
DG39%
Betaagainst the S&P 500, 5 years
COST0.73
DG0.34
Deepest fallpeak to trough, 5 years
COST−31.4%
DG−72.6%
Market regimeour reading at each model date
COSTStrong risk-off
DGStrong risk-off
Short interestshare of the float
COST1.7%settled 30 Sep 2026
DG—Not measured today.
Days to covershort shares over average volume
COST2.7
DG2.6
Average volume3 months, shares a day
COST2.08M
DG2.33M
Moving togethercorrelation of daily returns, past year0.24, loosely together−1 opposite0 unrelated+1 together
Questions
Costco or Dollar General: common questions
Which is larger by market value, Costco or Dollar General?
Costco, at $436.75B against $34.01B for Dollar General, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).
How did Costco and Dollar General move over the past year against the S&P 500?
Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Dollar General +24.5%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
What does the model expect for Costco and Dollar General over the next month?
−0.08% for Costco with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.05% for Dollar General with a 69% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.
How do the operating margins of Costco and Dollar General compare?
The operating margin is 3.9% for Costco and 9% for Dollar General, and the gross margin 12.8% against 28.2%. Filings: quarter to 30 Aug 2026 and 28 Jan 2000.
Do Costco and Dollar General shares move together?
Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.24 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
In the consoleCompare up to four companies with every model readingMembers see the 63-session chance of a rise and all four horizons, side by side in Research › Compare.
Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.