S&P 500 comparison · Consumer Staples

Costco vs Kroger

Prices at close . Model readings .

Costco

$982.73−0.95%
Month: negativeLong run: neutral

Kroger

$65.02−1.29%
Month: negativeLong run: neutral
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Costco is the larger company by market value ($436.75B against $39.53B). Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Kroger −2.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 45.5 for Costco and 32.9 for Kroger, and the operating margin 3.9% against 2.8%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.08% for Costco, with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.78% for Kroger, with a 22% chance. Costco's long-run fair value is $905.48, a gap of −7.9% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Kroger's long-run fair value is $64.21, a gap of −1.2% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
COST−0.08%
KR−0.78%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
COST34%
KR22%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
COST−1.72%
KR−0.14%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
COST−19.3% to +15.8%
KR−21.1% to +20.8%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
COST$905.4828 Oct 2026
KR$64.2128 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
COST−7.9%
KR−1.2%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
COST54.6%of 269
KR50.4%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
COST+6.3%
KR+7%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
COST−1.3%
KR−1.9%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
COST+14.5%
KR+5.9%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
COST+6.3%
KR−2.3%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
COST+120.7%
KR+84.3%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
COST−6.4 pts
KR−15.0 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
COST56%close $982.73 in $840.35 to $1,094.76
KR51%close $65.02 in $53.78 to $75.66
Against the 200-day average
COST+1.4%
KR+3.1%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to (COST), (KR)
Market value
COST$436.75B28 Oct 2026
KR$39.53B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
COST$403.90B30 Aug 2026
KR$46.71B15 Aug 2026
P/Elatest filed
COST45.5
KR32.9
Price to book
COST11.74
KR5.90
EV / EBITDA
COST28.13
KR8.83
Free cash flow yield
COST2.23%
KR6.92%
Dividend yield
COST0.25%
KR2.59%
Questions

Costco or Kroger: common questions

Which is larger by market value, Costco or Kroger?

Costco, at $436.75B against $39.53B for Kroger, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, Costco or Kroger?

Costco has the higher latest filed P/E, 45.5; Kroger's is 32.9. Filings: quarter to 30 Aug 2026 and 15 Aug 2026.

How did Costco and Kroger move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Kroger −2.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for Costco and Kroger over the next month?

−0.08% for Costco with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.78% for Kroger with a 22% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of Costco and Kroger compare?

The operating margin is 3.9% for Costco and 2.8% for Kroger. Filings: quarter to 30 Aug 2026 and 15 Aug 2026.

Do Costco and Kroger shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.51 (often together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

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The two company pagesCostco (COST) forecast and analysisKroger (KR) forecast and analysis
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BrowseAll Consumer Staples companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.