Costco vs Dollar Tree
Prices at close . Model readings .
Costco
$982.73−0.95%- Market value
- $436.75B
- P/E
- 45.5
- 1 year
- +6.3%
Dollar Tree
$127.18+2.85%- Market value
- $24.28B
- P/E
- 15.1
- 1 year
- +24%
Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark
Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.
How the two compare
On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Costco is the larger company by market value ($436.75B against $24.28B). Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Dollar Tree +24%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 45.5 for Costco and 15.1 for Dollar Tree, and the operating margin 3.9% against 14.1%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.08% for Costco, with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.16% for Dollar Tree, with a 59% chance. Costco's long-run fair value is $905.48, a gap of −7.9% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Dollar Tree's long-run fair value is $96.20, a gap of −24.4% to its price; the long-run model view is negative.
What the model expects
Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.
How the prices moved
Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.
What the market pays
Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.
How much of revenue becomes profit
Margins and returns on capital from the latest filing; revenue, net income and earnings per share over the trailing twelve months.
How fast the business grew
Change against the same quarter a year earlier.
Balance sheet and quality scores
Leverage, liquidity and two published scores: Altman Z (below 1.8 the distress zone, above 3 the safe zone) and Piotroski F (0 to 9).
How the shares trade
Volatility, sensitivity to the market, the deepest fall, short interest and how closely the two move together.
Costco or Dollar Tree: common questions
Which is larger by market value, Costco or Dollar Tree?
Costco, at $436.75B against $24.28B for Dollar Tree, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).
Which has the higher P/E ratio, Costco or Dollar Tree?
Costco has the higher latest filed P/E, 45.5; Dollar Tree's is 15.1. Filings: quarter to 30 Aug 2026 and 1 Aug 2026.
How did Costco and Dollar Tree move over the past year against the S&P 500?
Over the past year Costco returned +6.3% and Dollar Tree +24%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
What does the model expect for Costco and Dollar Tree over the next month?
−0.08% for Costco with a 34% chance of a rise, and −0.16% for Dollar Tree with a 59% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.
How do the operating margins of Costco and Dollar Tree compare?
The operating margin is 3.9% for Costco and 14.1% for Dollar Tree, and the gross margin 12.8% against 42.9%. Filings: quarter to 30 Aug 2026 and 1 Aug 2026.
Do Costco and Dollar Tree shares move together?
Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.20 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.