The view
Bloom Energy closed at $191.99 on 13 November 2026, a change of +51.5% over the past year, yet the close sits −14.1% from its long-run average and 153.6% above its low of the past year. The Intrinsic Value model puts the share at $20.65, a gap of −89.3% against the price, so the price sits far above that estimate. The published 21-session view leans up at +1.75%, with a probability of a rise of 42%. The published 63-session view also leans up at +12.32%. The market regime reads strong risk-off.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans up at +1.75%, with a probability of a rise of 42% and a band from −34.8% to +38.3%. The most unusual facts are in chart patterns: price, volume, liquidity and volume-with-growth anomalies all sit at the highest of the company's own five years, and volatility ranks among the highest in the large-cap market. The strong risk-off regime and weak strength against its sector cut the other way. Across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next month was +9.4%, and 69% of them rose. That history is not a forecast, but it agrees with the upward lean.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The published 63-session view leans up at +12.32%, with a band from −64.5% to +89.2%, wide enough to include deep losses as well as large gains. Both published views point the same way, so there is no split between the next month and the next three months. The facts carrying the longer reading are revenue growth of +138.1% and a balance sheet health measure at its five-year high, set against weak momentum and low strength against the sector. Past situations like today's show a median of +20.5% over the next three months, with 72% rising. As history, it supports the lean.
The long term
The long-term case is where the evidence conflicts most. Intrinsic value of $20.65 sits −89.3% from the price, so the valuation model sees no support at this level. The earnings multiple of 3.55 is at percentile 1 in its sector, the lowest there, while price to book is 42.37, which points to earnings well above what book value alone would suggest. Return on equity is 23.1%, debt to equity 1.26 at percentile 84, the Piotroski score 6, and operating cash flow $690.97M. Past situations like today's showed a median of +41.5% over the following year, with 69% rising. The near-term views rest on price behaviour and that history; the gap to intrinsic value drives the cautious side.
How sure we are
On this name, 57% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, somewhat better than the base rate of about half across all names, a modest but measurable edge. The past situations rest on 200 cases matched on seven measures only, not on the 601 features computed today, so they describe broad shape rather than this company in detail. The bands are very wide, from −34.8% to +38.3% over the next month and −64.5% to +89.2% over three months, so either view deserves limited weight, and the long-term case rests on a valuation model that disagrees sharply with the price.