The view
Lumentum closed at $596.62 on 13 November 2026, with the share price up +135.1% over the past year, yet the close now sits −26.7% from its 200-day average after a sharp pullback. The Intrinsic Value model puts the company at $70.35 per share, a gap of −88.2%, so the price stands far above the model's valuation. The published 21-session view expects +1.78%, with a probability of a rise of 47%. The published 63-session view expects +6.92%. Both are read in a strong risk-off market regime.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans slightly up, at +1.78% with a probability of a rise of 47%, and the band from −40% to +43.6% shows how loose that lean is. The supportive side rests on the pullback: the close sits −26.7% below its 200-day average after a year of very strong gains, and momentum ranks low against the S&P 500. Against it, volatility sits at the top of the index, with average true range and downside deviation at the highest of the company's five years, and the strong risk-off regime weighs on risk. History, not a forecast, leans the same way: across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +6% and 63% of them rose.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The published 63-session view also leans up, at +6.92%, inside a very wide band from −56.6% to +70.4%. It points the same way as the 21-session view, so the two horizons do not conflict. What carries it is the same mix: a deep retreat from the 200-day average after a run that still leaves the close 177% above its 52-week low, revenue growth that ranks among the strongest in the company's record, and growth and momentum macro measures at their own five-year extremes. The past situations like today's, which are history rather than a forecast, were nearly flat over 63 sessions, with a median of +0.9% and 51% rising, so history gives the longer near-term lean only weak support.
The long term
The long-term case is where the evidence turns against the near-term lean. Intrinsic value of $70.35 sits −88.2% from the price. Reported earnings are negative, giving a price-to-earnings multiple of -11.52 at percentile 1 in the sector, price-to-book is 18.68, and return on equity is -245.8%. The supportive facts are operational: revenue growth of +136.5%, operating cash flow of $961.20M, a Piotroski score of 6, and debt to equity of 0.60 at percentile 44, a middle position in the sector. The past situations like today's fell over the following year, with a median of −11.5% and 45% rising. Near-term views draw on the pullback and growth; the long-term case is driven by valuation and weak returns on capital.
How sure we are
This name's record gives the 21-session view more weight than usual: 68% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, against a base rate of about half across all names. That record does not extend to the 63-session view or the longer horizons. The historical comparison rests on 200 past situations, matched on seven measures rather than on the 598 features computed today, so it captures the price pattern but not the full profile. The bands are very wide, from −40% to +43.6% and from −56.6% to +70.4%, reflecting volatility at the highest of the company's five years, so each reading is a dated probability with large uncertainty.