The view
As of 13 November 2026, TKO Group Holdings closed at $195.42, a change of +8.8% over the past year. The close sits +1.6% from its two-hundred-day average and 14.9% above its yearly low. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $205.12, a gap of +5% to the price, so intrinsic value sits above the close. The published 21-session view expects +2.47%, with a probability of a rise of 56%. The published 63-session view expects +2.91%. The market regime reads strong risk-off.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans up, expecting +2.47% within a band from −13.7% to +18.6%, with a probability of a rise of 56%. The most unusual facts sit in the chart patterns: a whole cluster of anomaly measures, covering price spikes, volume surges and the anomaly z-score, stands at the highest of the company's own five years, and its loading against its sector is also at a five-year high. Short selling sits at percentile 65 in the sector. History, not a forecast: the 200 past situations most like today's returned a median +1.2% over the next 21 sessions, and 57% of them rose. That history agrees with the lean, though more mildly than the published probability.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The published 63-session view also leans up, expecting +2.91% within a wider band from −20.1% to +25.9%. The two published views point the same way, and the expected move over the longer horizon is close in size to the 21-session one, which suggests the model sees most of the drift arriving early and little added beyond it. What carries the view is intrinsic value above the price, revenue growth and sector-relative strength, set against a strong risk-off market regime that widens the range of outcomes. History, not a forecast: the past situations like today's returned a median +2% over the next 63 sessions, and 57% of them rose, broadly in line with the lean.
The long term
The long-term case rests first on intrinsic value of $205.12, a gap of +5% above the price. Growth supports it: revenue rose +21.5% over the past year and operating cash flow reached $1.85B. Against that, the earnings multiple of 59.94 sits at percentile 100 in its sector, the highest there, and price to book is 3.96. Return on equity of 8% is modest, debt to equity of 0.56 sits at percentile 65 in the sector, and the Piotroski score of 5 is middling. History, not a forecast: the past situations like today's returned a median +13.4% over the following year, with 68% of them rising. Cash flow and intrinsic value carry the case; the rich multiple is the main conflict.
How sure we are
On this name, 56% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction of the outcome, a little above the base rate of about half across all names, so the record lends modest support rather than strong confirmation. The past-situation history rests on 200 cases matched on seven measures, not on the 626 features computed for the company today. The bands are wide: −13.7% to +18.6% over 21 sessions and −20.1% to +25.9% over 63 sessions, wide enough that either outcome is plausible at both horizons. The long-term case leans more on valuation and cash flow than on any measured forecast record.