NASDAQ · Information Technology · Software · USD

OKTA Okta

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182.87+0.33 (+0.18%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Okta (OKTA) closed at $182.87 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +2.75% over 21 sessions, with a 83% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $44.17, a gap of −75.9% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in OKTA was 3.9% of the float, 1.9 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $62.66 to $235.00.
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Overlay
1Y +115.93% · from $84.69 to $182.87
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $44.17, above this rangesessions ahead →2169.54112.14154.74197.34239.9484.69182.87
Previous close182.54
Open186.50
Day’s range175.00 – 186.50
52-week range62.66 – 235.00
Volume2,427,200
Avg. volume, 3 months4,287,065
Market cap$32.70B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.63
P/E ratio (TTM)85.47
EPS (TTM)1.66
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value44.17
Gap to intrinsic value−75.8%
21-session view+2.75%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions83%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+2.75% expected · 83 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+10.54% expected · band −38.5% to +59.6%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $44.17, 76% below the close
ConfidenceLow40% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

As of 13 November 2026, Okta closed at $182.87 after a share price change of +115.9% over the past year. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $44.17, a gap of −75.9% to the price, so the price sits far above what the blended valuation supports. The published 21-session view leans up only slightly, with an expected return of +2.75% and a probability of a rise of 83%. The published 63-session view leans up more clearly, at +10.54%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The 21-session view leans up, but barely. The expected return is +2.75%, the probability of a rise is 83%, and the band runs from −29.3% to +34.8%. Supporting the lean are strong momentum and supportive filing sentiment and flows. Against it, the close sits +41.7% from its long-term average and 191.8% above its one-year low. Short-term acceleration is the lowest in five years, and the market regime is strong risk-off. Among the 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +0.7%, and 53% rose. That history broadly agrees with a faint upward lean, but it is history, not a forecast.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The 63-session view leans up with an expected return of +10.54%, inside a wide band from −38.5% to +59.6%. The lean rests on momentum that is high against the market, on supportive flows and filing sentiment, and on light short selling, with short-sale volume at percentile 35 in its sector. Chart-pattern anomalies in price, volume and momentum sit at the highest of the last five years, which widens the range of outcomes. Past situations like today's had a median return of +2.7% over the next 63 sessions, and 54% rose. That history agrees with the direction but is more modest than the published view. The two near-term views point the same way.

The long term

The long-term case is weaker than the near-term views. Intrinsic value of $44.17 sits −75.9% from the price. The earnings multiple of 85.47 is at percentile 81 in its sector, and the price-to-book multiple is 3.64. Return on equity is a thin 4.3%. The quality side is sounder: a financial-health score of 7 out of nine, operating cash flow of $987.00M, and revenue growth of +10.6%. Past situations like today's had a median return of −8.8% over the following year, and 42% rose. Momentum and flows carry the near-term lean, while valuation and that one-year history weigh on the longer horizons.

How sure we are

Every horizon deserves modest weight. On this name, 40% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, which is below the base rate of about half across all names. The analog history rests on 200 past situations, matched on seven measures rather than on all 617 features in the fingerprint. The bands are very wide, from −29.3% to +34.8% over 21 sessions and from −38.5% to +59.6% over 63 sessions. Volatility sits near the top of the market, and idiosyncratic volatility is the highest in five years, so each reading is a loose, dated probability.

Written by our research agent from 617 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 4Distance
Earnings multipleP/E 85.47 · percentile 89 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $44.17 · gap −75.8% · percentile 16 in the sector
Return on equity4.3% · percentile 16 in the sector
Revenue growth+10.6% a year · percentile 21 in the sector
For the stock · 3Distance
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 92 in the sector
Forecast, next month+2.75% · 83 in 100 chance of rising
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 35 in the sector

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+2.75%83 in 100
63 sessions+10.54%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources2 of 5 back the view
ValuationAgainstGap to intrinsic value −75.8% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 21%−0.01%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+8.22%
617 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Information Technology · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to OKTA’s +2.75%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Momentum−0.21%
Flows+0.07%
Macro sensitivity
Sector-relative
Sentiment
Value
Patterns
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Gap size pct Momentump8 → p99+91
Pat mstruct overnight gap zscore Patternsp10 → p98+88
Gapless return 1d Momentump94 → p11−83
Iv net debt contribution Valuep9 → p90+81
Iv attribution top driver concentration Valuep9 → p76+67
Sflow z 63d Patternsp89 → p25−64
Relative volume 5d Liquidityp16 → p77+61

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum121p100p960Untested
Value compositeValue0.473p56p140Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.667p69p1000Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.867p91p950Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p61p14−1Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.459p47p21+2Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p76p100+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.013p75p970Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.597p22p30None · 20/32 yrs
Pattern confidencePatterns0.363p54p72—Untested
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.067p43p13+6Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum27.67p95p76+1None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.511p35p900Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.827p69p870Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.006p59p220None · 24/32 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+0.7%
Share that rose53%
Low end (q10)−21.2%
High end (q90)+25.4%
YRCW Jan 2022−7.4%
KLAC Jul 2026−13.4%
AMD Jul 2026+11%
ACMR Mar 2026+0.4%

Where OKTA ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 31 Jul 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 75 Information Technology members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places OKTA among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

85.47×P/EHigher than 89% of the sectorSector percentile 89
3.64×Price / bookLower than 77% of the sectorSector percentile 23
—EV / EBITDASector median 16.71×
−75.8%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 84% of the sectorSector percentile 16
79.6%Gross marginHigher than 86% of the sectorSector percentile 86
4.3%Return on equityLower than 84% of the sectorSector percentile 16
—Debt / equitySector median 0.53
7 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$32.70B
Enterprise value—
Revenue, ttm$3.07B
Net income, ttm$296.94M
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm$1.66
Book value / share$39.00
Shares outstanding178.81M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$44.17

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

43.5RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
70%In 52-week rangeLow $62.66, high $235.00Low to high, past year
68%In today’s rangeRange $175.00 to $186.50Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.57×Volume vs average2.43M shares against 4.29M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.63Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
85.1%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+2.75%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −29.3% to +34.8% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
83%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−21.2%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −83.2%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$182.54
Open$186.50
Day’s range$175.00 – $186.50
52-week range$62.66 – $235.00
Volume2.43M
Avg. volume, 3M4.29M
1-year change+115.93%
ATR (14)$14.30

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest6.59M
Short float3.9%
Days to cover1.9
Change since previous settlement−5.3%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p35 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
8 Oct 2026Ninan Shibu Chief Accounting OfficerSale$220.002,002$440.44K
7 Oct 2026Ninan Shibu Chief Accounting OfficerSale$217.627,875$1.71M
7 Oct 2026Ninan Shibu Chief Accounting OfficerSale$216.352,700$584.16K
7 Oct 2026Ninan Shibu Chief Accounting OfficerSale$218.202,100$458.22K
22 Sep 2026McKinnon Todd Chief Executive OfficerSale$196.249,996$1.96M
22 Sep 2026McKinnon Todd Chief Executive OfficerSale$190.056,961$1.32M
22 Sep 2026McKinnon Todd Chief Executive OfficerSale$197.206,065$1.20M
22 Sep 2026McKinnon Todd Chief Executive OfficerSale$192.025,337$1.02M

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on OKTA

40% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Okta called the direction correctly.

−50%−3%−25%−1.5%0%0%+25%+1.5%+50%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

OKTA, 21 sessions39.9%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · OKTA sits in decile 9 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−4.5%−110%−2.2%−50%0%+10%+2.3%+70%+4.5%+130%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewOKTAADBEADSKCDNSCRMDDOGFICOFTNT
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
OKTA Okta$182.87$32.70B85.5+115.9%−75.8%+2.75%positive3.9%
ADBE Adobe$243.08$94.61B16.3−27.9%+113.9%+2.15%positive4.8%
ADSK Autodesk$264.42$55.26B30.4−12.4%−18%+1.41%positive4.3%
CDNS Cadence Design Systems$323.01$88.63B65.7+2.4%−64.2%+2.36%positive2%
CRM Salesforce$217.84$179.28B17.1−10.9%−41.8%+4.27%positive3.5%
CRWD CrowdStrike$226.61$232.03B1,374.2+66.1%—+3.79%positive2.3%
DDOG Datadog$184.16$69.06B386.9−3.5%−93.8%+2.58%positive3.3%
FICO Fair Isaac$720.19$15.40B16.3−59.5%+72.9%+3.37%positive12.9%
FTNT Fortinet$127.22$93.47B58.2+54.9%−37.7%+1.79%positive2.2%

Questions about OKTA

What is the intrinsic value of Okta stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for OKTA is $44.17 per share against a $182.87 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −75.9%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the OKTA stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for OKTA is +2.75%, with a band from −29.3% to +34.8% and a 83% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +10.54%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for OKTA been?

40% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Okta called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.