Company analysis
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) forecast and analysis
Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels · Reading of October 8, 2026
Last close
$463.34
Fair value (DCF)
$419.33
Gap to fair value −9.5%
21-session view
−3.49%
band −19.3% to +12.3%
63-session view
−4.83%
Market regime
strong risk-off
The reading in brief
Marathon Petroleum (MPC), part of the Energy sector and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry, shows a reading dated October 8, 2026 in which the model's fair value of $419.33 sits below the latest close of $463.34, a gap of −9.5%. The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −3.49% and a probability of a rise of only 15%. Even so, the band from −19.3% to +12.3% spans both signs. The 63-session view, at −4.83%, points the same way. The market regime reads strong risk-off. The record on this name is fairly long: 60% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction of the outcome.
Written automatically from the figures on this page; every figure is filled in from the day's data.
Research cockpit
Each source's reading of MPC today, the stance it takes against the published view, and what would change it. The same board subscribers open in the console.
mixed
−9.5%value gap · DCF against pricefair value $419 vs $463.34 · the DCF's own chance it is undervalued: 38%supports at −10% or less · against at +10% or moreagainst
+56unified technical score3-session run vs industry +4.65%, higher than 98% of sector; such runs have tended to fadesupports at −15 or less · against at +15 or moreagainst
8 / 9Piotroski F-scoreROIC 9.4% · D/E 1.28 · Altman-Z 2.21 · Q2 period to Jun 30, 2026supports at 3 or less · against at 7 or moresupports
15%recommended exposuremarket-wide strong risk off · the regime's tilt for Energy +0.91 · as of Oct 8, 2026supports at 40% or less · against at 75% or moresupports
14 analystscovering in the last 180 days · our own estimate recordhigher than 91% of sector · net rating changes −0.11 over 63 sessions · vendor consensus unavailablesupports in the most-covered 40% of its sector · against in the least-covered 40% — the most-covered fifth beat the median stock 49 times in 100 over three months, the least-covered 52 (since 2012)Model reading
what the published belief says · what only a portfolio can add
leans down−3.49%2 of 5 sources for · 21d belief · 11 voices
Price impactmeasured · this symbol
higher than 86% of sector (Kyle λ)Names with higher price impact have done slightly worse over the next week (the ordering held in 27 of 32 years). Order size itself is a portfolio decision.
Liquidity vs edgemeasured · this symbol
more liquid than 95% of sector (Amihud)Less liquid names have earned more over three months (the ordering held in 25 of 32 years). The portfolio prices the order.
Band legs · q10 / q9021 sessions
−19.3% / +12.3%
Risk checksper portfolio
Run in the portfolio, not on a symbol — 13 checks (position ceiling, gross exposure, sector concentration …)
Regime overridemarket-wide · Oct 8, 2026
scaled15% exposure
Reliability21 sessions
0.000 = the 21-session head has not yet earned a reliability score on settled outcomes.
Price impact in fifths · the next week
Illiquidity in fifths · the next three months
InsightProven signal
What it meansMPC's price impact over 5 sessions is higher than 86% of sector; by illiquidity it is more liquid than 95% of sector. Both are measured on MPC itself, not a portfolio.
What history saysOut of 100 stocks with the highest price impact, 49 beat the median stock over the next week; with the lowest, 50. MPC sits in the highest fifth today. That ordering held in 27 of 32 years since 1995. On average the lowest fifth out-earned the highest by 0.13 points over the next week. Over the next three months 52 in 100 of the least liquid fifth beat the median stock, against 48 of the most liquid. MPC sits in the lowest fifth for illiquidity.
How to use itThese describe what an order in MPC would face, not which way it goes. Order size stays a portfolio decision.
For the curious: Kyle λ at 5 sessions: rank IC −0.011 · t −6.3 · 27/32 years · 1,633 weekly samples since 1995 · Amihud at 63 sessions: rank IC +0.044 · t +3.9 · 25/32 years · 1,621 weekly samples since 1995Published belief band
q10 — μ — q90 per horizon · conformal · rank among names
1d−0.0%−2.9% · +2.9%−2.9% · +2.9%p13 of 1,303
5d−0.4%−7.0% · +6.3%−7.0% · +6.3%p6 of 1,303
21d−3.5%−19.3% · +12.3%−19.3% · +12.3%p3 of 1,303
63d−4.8%−32.8% · +23.2%−32.8% · +23.2%p2 of 1,303
Square = expected return, bar = the model's q10–q90 range, right = where the expected return ranks among 1,303 names. A hollow square has no published range — do not size on it.
Exit map
Where MPC's 21-session band legs sit against today's close is in the console, with the valuation, technical, fundamentals and regime tabs.
Why it leans down, not up
posterior against a 51.7% base rate
P(up)0.15below a coin flip
E[r]−3.49%expected, 21 sessions
σ9.60%spread of outcomes
Rankp3of 1,303 names
E[r] / σ−0.36reward per unit of spread
Evidence balance · the belief's own arithmeticfor +0.62% · against −3.78% · net −3.17%Each voice's expected return times its weight; the rows sum exactly to the belief.
iv kinematicw 4%+0.33%
iv relativew 4%+0.23%
sector catboostw 8%+0.06%
dcf mean reverterw 9%−0.01%
bundlew 5%−0.01%
iv cqr probw 7%−0.02%
lstmw 3%−0.07%
mimow 3%−0.21%
iv cqr returnw 5%−0.23%
quantilew 15%−0.64%
catboostw 37%−2.58%
Outside evidence · measured, not voting
lowest in sectorhighest
Run vs industry · 3 sessionshigher than 98% of sectorfavours the belief
Beat its factors · 21 sessionshigher than 95% of sectorfavours the belief
Unusual volume · vs its yearhigher than 49% of sectorsits in the middle
Price impact (Kyle λ)higher than 86% of sectorfavours the belief
Illiquidity (Amihud)higher than 5% of sectorfavours the belief
Short-sale volume · 21 sessionshigher than 49% of sectorsits in the middle
Analysts coveringhigher than 91% of sectorfavours the belief
Tinted half = the side of the sector that has gone on to do better on that measure, in the evidence study since 1995, 2009, 2012. These do not enter the belief's arithmetic — they tell you whether the market's own record agrees with it.Conditional hit rate · how the prior updatesPlatform-wide, not MPC's own record. The tick is the base rate; a top-decile belief has not beaten it. MPC sits in decile 1 today.
Unconditional, every name51.7% · n 342,931
Given a top-decile belief51.0% · n 34,163
… and 5+ voices behind it51.0% · n 34,163
base 51.7%
InsightModel output
What it meansThe belief leans down (−3.49%) and its own P(up) is 0.15: a negative average and a worse-than-even chance of rising.
What history saysThe expected return ranks higher than 3% of 1,303 names today. On settled outcomes a top-decile belief has been right 51.0% of the time against 51.7% for every name. Proven measures read outside the belief: 7 — favouring it, 5; leaning against it, 0. The strongest of them, Run vs industry · 3 sessions, held its ordering in 32 of 32 years since 1995.
How to use itRead the rank and the range before the number; the band legs, not the average, say how wide the outcomes run.
For the curious: direction_prob, mu, sigma from ii_belief · rank among 1,303 names · base rate from the signal-validation study, platform-wide, Sep 2, 2025 to Sep 9, 2026What would change this reading
current reading measured · the trigger's source named
The fair-value gap moves past +10% or −10%−9.5% todaythe valuation rule on this tab
The 3-session run falls back to the sector middlehigher than 98% of sector todayproven reversal · the next week
Short-sale volume rises into the top half of the sectorhigher than 49% of sector · higher than 62% of its past yearproven · one to three months
Voice agreement drops11 voices · 84% consistentportfolio policy sets the level
The market regime turns more risk-offstrong risk off todayregime tab · market-wide
Voice agreement · 21d
5 scored voices · belief as of Oct 8, 2026
bundle63%right on direction · n 294latest −0.3%
catboost62%right on direction · n 295latest −6.9%
lstm53%right on direction · n 295latest −2.4%
mimo59%right on direction · n 295latest −6.9%
quantile56%right on direction · n 295latest −4.3%
How often each model called MPC's 21-session direction right on settled outcomes. Below 60 settled calls the figure is greyed: too few to judge.
Valuation & Predictions, Technical Structure, Fundamentals & Filings and Regime are in the console.
Forecast record on MPC
60% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts on Marathon Petroleum called the direction correctly.
Each square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against the return that followed.
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Questions about MPC
- What is the fair value of Marathon Petroleum stock?
- The model's discounted-cash-flow fair value for MPC is $419.33 per share against a $463.34 close on October 8, 2026, a gap of −9.5%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.
- What is the MPC stock forecast?
- The published 21-session view for MPC is −3.49%, with a band from −19.3% to +12.3%; over 63 sessions it is −4.83%. These are probabilities from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.
- How accurate have the forecasts for MPC been?
- 60% of 257 matured 21-session forecasts on Marathon Petroleum called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.
- Is this investment advice?
- No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
A dated model reading, not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilities and can be wrong.
How the fair value is estimatedHow every forecast is testedDisclosures