NASDAQ · Information Technology · Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment · USD

MRVL Marvell Technology

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156.76−7.69 (−4.68%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed at $156.76 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was negative: an expected return of −0.22% over 21 sessions, with a 42% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $8.50, a gap of −94.6% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in MRVL was 3% of the float, 1.2 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $70.64 to $329.80.
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Overlay
1Y +75.74% · from $89.20 to $156.76
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $8.50, above this rangesessions ahead →21138.71195.01251.31307.6289.20156.76
Previous close164.45
Open161.60
Day’s range149.17 – 163.89
52-week range70.64 – 329.80
Volume23,688,400
Avg. volume, 3 months24,578,789
Market cap$137.46B
Beta (5Y weekly)2.06
P/E ratio (TTM)62.87
EPS (TTM)2.98
Dividend yield—
Intrinsic value8.50
Gap to intrinsic value−94.6%
21-session view−0.22%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions42%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: negative for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthNegative−0.22% expected · 42 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+9.6% expected · band −48% to +67.2%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $8.50, 95% below the close
ConfidenceLow46% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

As of 13 November 2026, Marvell Technology closed at $156.76, a one-year change of +75.7%, and the close still sits 121.9% above its 52-week low, although it now stands −16.2% against its 200-day average. The Intrinsic Value model puts value per share at $8.50, a gap of −94.6% to the price, so the price stands far above intrinsic value. The published 21-session view leans slightly down at −0.22%, with a probability of a rise of 42%. The published 63-session view leans up at +9.6%.

Next month: why the model view is negative

The published 21-session view leans down, though only slightly, at −0.22%, with a probability of a rise of 42% and a band from −38.7% to +38.2%. The strongest facts on that side are the strong risk-off market regime and a volatility picture that is extreme. The volatility family ranks near the top of the S&P 500, and average true range, band width and downside deviation are all the highest in five years. Strength against its sector is among the lowest in the index, and momentum is weak. History disagrees with the lean. Across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +5.7%, and 64% of them rose. That is history, not a forecast.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view leans up at +9.6%, inside a very wide band from −48% to +67.2%. It points the other way from the 21-session view at −0.22%. The near view is weighed down by the risk-off regime and by volatility at a five-year extreme. The longer view gives more weight to revenue growth, a pullback below the long-run average after a strong year, and light short selling, with crowding low against the index. Such a split can occur when stress dominates a single month but fades across a quarter. The past situations agree with the longer lean. Across 200 cases, the median move over the next 63 sessions was +8.4%, and 60% rose. That remains history, not a forecast.

The long term

The long-term case is split. On valuation it is weak. Intrinsic value of $8.50 sits −94.6% from the price, the price-to-earnings multiple of 62.87 is at percentile 74 in its sector, and price to book is 8.88. The value family ranks among the lowest in the S&P 500. The business side is firmer. Revenue grew +36.6% over the past year, return on equity is 16.5%, and operating cash flow reached $2.20B. Debt to equity of 0.27 sits at percentile 31 in its sector, and the Piotroski score is 6. Past situations like today's gained a median +6.7% over the following year, with 57% rising. That is history, not a forecast. Growth and cash flow carry the case, while valuation weighs against it.

How sure we are

Each horizon deserves limited weight. On this name, 46% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction of the outcome, which is a little below the base rate of about half across all names. The record therefore adds little confidence to the downward 21-session lean. The past-situation history rests on 200 cases matched on seven measures, not on the 603 features computed today. The bands are very wide: −38.7% to +38.2% over 21 sessions and −48% to +67.2% over 63 sessions. With volatility at a five-year extreme, either published view is a dated probability with a large spread, not a firm call.

Written by our research agent from 603 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 6Distance
ValuationIntrinsic value $8.50 · gap −94.6% · percentile 3 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 15 in the sector
Insider trades, 30 daysNet insider value at percentile 18 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 62.87 · percentile 81 in the sector
Return on equity16.5% · percentile 38 in the sector
Forecast, next month−0.22% · 42 in 100 chance of rising
For the stock · 3Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 12 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.27 · percentile 25 in the sector
Revenue growth+36.6% a year · percentile 71 in the sector

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions−0.22%42 in 100
63 sessions+9.6%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources3 of 5 back the view
ValuationSupportsGap to intrinsic value −94.6% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeAgainst79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 21%−0.09%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+7.55%
603 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Information Technology · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to MRVL’s −0.22%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Sector-relative+0.32%
Liquidity+0.25%
Momentum
Value
Macro sensitivity
Sentiment
Crowding
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Return 2d Momentump96 → p2−94
Gapless return 1d Momentump98 → p5−93
Obv slope 3d Liquidityp94 → p5−89
Distance from 5d mean Momentump97 → p11−86
Sflow z 63d Patternsp83 → p4−79
Obv slope 5d Liquidityp92 → p27−65
Xsec ig breadth Sector-relativep65 → p2−63

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum−11.38p39p31−4Untested
Value compositeValue0.278p29p100Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.510p41p950Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.886p93p900Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p20p16+1Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.355p15p32−1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows−$4.50Mp27p21+2None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.014p59p850Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity1.84p93p60+1None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.294p3p10Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−33.10p15p8−2None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.531p39p900Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility1.18p93p950Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.002p20p300None · 24/32 yrs
Days to coverCrowding1.21p8p120None · 4/6 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+5.7%
Share that rose64%
Low end (q10)−15.2%
High end (q90)+31.5%
IRTC Feb 2021−10.4%
MDR Dec 2015−28.6%
XMTR Mar 2026−4.5%
SITM Apr 2022+21.2%

Where MRVL ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 1 Aug 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 75 Information Technology members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places MRVL among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

62.87×P/EHigher than 81% of the sectorSector percentile 81
8.88×Price / bookHigher than 58% of the sectorSector percentile 58
—EV / EBITDASector median 16.52×
−94.6%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 97% of the sectorSector percentile 3
53.1%Gross marginLower than 64% of the sectorSector percentile 36
16.5%Return on equityLower than 62% of the sectorSector percentile 38
0.27Debt / equityLower than 75% of the sectorSector percentile 25
6 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$137.46B
Enterprise value$165.50B
Revenue, ttm$9.45B
Net income, ttm$2.62B
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm$2.98
Book value / share$21.13
Shares outstanding876.9M
Dividend yield—
Intrinsic valueFREE$8.50

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

35.3RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
33%In 52-week rangeLow $70.64, high $329.80Low to high, past year
52%In today’s rangeRange $149.17 to $163.89Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.96×Volume vs average23.69M shares against 24.58M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
2.06Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
122.1%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
−0.22%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −38.7% to +38.2% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
42%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−50.4%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −61.9%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$164.45
Open$161.60
Day’s range$149.17 – $163.89
52-week range$70.64 – $329.80
Volume23.69M
Avg. volume, 3M24.58M
1-year change+75.74%
ATR (14)$18.48

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest26.09M
Short float3%
Days to cover1.2
Change since previous settlement+6.1%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p12 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
2 Nov 2026Koopmans Chris President and COOSale$186.9710,000$1.87M
16 Oct 2026Bharathi Sandeep President, Data Center GroupSale$234.973,685$865.86K
15 Oct 2026MURPHY MATTHEW J Chairman of the Board and CEOSale$235.477,500$1.77M
8 Oct 2026Scarpulla Justin SVP, Chief Accounting OfficerSale$273.591,100$300.95K
1 Oct 2026Koopmans Chris President and COOSale$262.0510,000$2.62M
15 Sep 2026MURPHY MATTHEW J Chairman of the Board and CEOSale$223.397,500$1.68M
1 Sep 2026Koopmans Chris President and COOSale$203.2710,000$2.03M
17 Aug 2026MURPHY MATTHEW J Chairman of the Board and CEOSale$236.087,500$1.77M

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on MRVL

46% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Marvell Technology called the direction correctly.

−70%−5%−35%−2.5%0%0%+35%+2.5%+70%+5%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

MRVL, 21 sessions46.3%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · MRVL sits in decile 2 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−3%−110%−1.5%−60%0%−10%+1.5%+40%+3%+90%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewMRVLADIAMATAMDAVGOFSLRKLACLRCX
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
MRVL Marvell Technology$156.76$137.46B62.9+75.7%−94.6%−0.22%negative3%
ADI Analog Devices$397.97$192.84B43.6+66.4%−64.8%+0.25%positive2.4%
AMAT Applied Materials$370.50$294.03B46.3+61.5%−40.1%+0.18%positive1.8%
AMD Advanced Micro Devices$534.06$875.90B137.1+106.3%−91.2%−0.72%negative2.4%
AVGO Broadcom$347.01$1.66T49.7−1.8%−64.7%+0.77%positive1.1%
FSLR First Solar$171.39$18.42B10.1−35.9%+74%+2.78%positive10.5%
INTC Intel$59.66$317.09Bn/m+57.5%—+2.97%positive3.5%
KLAC KLA$152.32$198.47B59.9+27.7%−43.3%+0.22%positive1.6%
LRCX Lam Research$225.92$282.21B47.0+40.5%−35.7%+0.91%positive2.7%

Questions about MRVL

What is the intrinsic value of Marvell Technology stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for MRVL is $8.50 per share against a $156.76 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −94.6%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the MRVL stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for MRVL is −0.22%, with a band from −38.7% to +38.2% and a 42% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +9.6%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for MRVL been?

46% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Marvell Technology called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.