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LII Lennox International

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352.02+3.94 (+1.13%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Lennox International (LII) closed at $352.02 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +1.42% over 21 sessions, with a 49% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $544.54, a gap of +54.7% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was positive.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in LII was 8.6% of the float, 3.2 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $322.00 to $587.27.
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Overlay
1Y −25.60% · from $473.17 to $352.02
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26Intrinsic value544.54sessions ahead →21296.81429.73496.18473.17352.02
Previous close348.08
Open353.95
Day’s range351.06 – 357.42
52-week range322.00 – 587.27
Volume600,100
Avg. volume, 3 months573,282
Market cap$12.04B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.11
P/E ratio (TTM)16.08
EPS (TTM)22.08
Dividend yield1.51%
Intrinsic value544.54
Gap to intrinsic value+54.7%
21-session view+1.42%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions49%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Deep value. Model view: positive for the next month, positive for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+1.42% expected · 49 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+0.18% expected · band −27.6% to +27.9%
Long termPositiveIntrinsic value $544.54, 55% above the close
ConfidenceLow48% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Lennox International closed at $352.02 on 13 November 2026; the model’s intrinsic value is $544.54, a gap of +54.7%. The published 21-session view is +1.42%, inside a band from −18.6% to +21.4%, with a 49% chance of a rise. Over 63 sessions it is +0.18%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The market regime reads strong risk-off. Revenue growth is +10.2% a year. Across 200 past situations like today's in US stocks since 1995, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +1.9%, and 57% of them rose.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view is +0.18%, inside a band from −27.6% to +27.9%. Over the next 63 sessions the same past situations moved a median +4.8%, and 60% of them rose.

The long term

The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $544.54, a gap of +54.7% to the close. The shares trade at 16.08 times earnings, percentile 18 in the sector. Price to book is 9.22. Return on equity is 64.5%. Operating cash flow is $989.30M a year. The price is 9.3% above its 52-week low. A year on, the past situations most like today's had moved a median +9.6%, and 59% of them rose.

How sure we are

On LII, 48% of 283 matured one-month calls got the direction right, against 52.3% across every name, so the short-term call deserves less weight. We update this note after every close.

Sentences filled by rule from the day’s figures. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 4Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 93 in the sector
Insider trades, 30 daysNet insider value at percentile 26 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 28 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.89 · percentile 61 in the sector
For the stock · 5Distance
Return on equity64.5% · percentile 94 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $544.54 · gap +54.7% · percentile 91 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 16.08 · percentile 14 in the sector
Forecast, next month+1.42% · 49 in 100 chance of rising
Revenue growth+10.2% a year · percentile 51 in the sector

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+1.42%49 in 100
63 sessions+0.18%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources2 of 5 back the view
ValuationSupportsGap to intrinsic value +54.7% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 32%+0.03%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+4.48%
622 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Industrials · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to LII’s +1.42%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Liquidity−0.28%
Momentum+0.26%
Sector-relative
Macro sensitivity
Flows
Sentiment
Value
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Iv terminal growth rate Valuep71 → p17−54
Sflow z 63d Patternsp68 → p15−53
Gap type Momentump15 → p67+52
Gap size pct Momentump46 → p97+51
Xs is loser 63d Sector-relativep94 → p44−50
Xreg zscore x sector rank Patternsp38 → p86+48
Gap up Momentump29 → p73+44

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum−29.59p6p40Untested
Value compositeValue0.677p78p1000Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.622p69p650Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.355p69p71−1Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p71p45−6Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.664p93p62−2Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows−$378.59Kp39p100+4None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment0.053p95p98+1Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity1.61p89p980None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.070p29p3−2Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−15.41p20p12+1None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.648p59p470Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.512p75p960Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.032p93p80None · 24/32 yrs
Days to coverCrowding3.21p57p800None · 4/6 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+1.9%
Share that rose57%
Low end (q10)−13.9%
High end (q90)+14.3%
G Jun 2026+1.1%
SLG Mar 2026+12.8%
PNR Jun 2026−15.4%
BMC Jan 2012+20.5%

Where LII ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 81 Industrials members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places LII among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

16.08×P/ELower than 86% of the sectorSector percentile 14
9.22×Price / bookHigher than 74% of the sectorSector percentile 74
11.23×EV / EBITDALower than 79% of the sectorSector percentile 21
+54.7%Gap to intrinsic valueFREEHigher than 91% of the sectorSector percentile 91
31.6%Gross marginLower than 73% of the sectorSector percentile 27
64.5%Return on equityHigher than 94% of the sectorSector percentile 94
0.89Debt / equityHigher than 61% of the sectorSector percentile 61
4 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$12.04B
Enterprise value$13.27B
Revenue, ttm$5.45B
Net income, ttm$755.48M
EBITDA, ttm$1.18B
EPS, ttm$22.08
Book value / share$38.50
Shares outstanding34.21M
Dividend yield1.51%
Intrinsic valueFREE$544.54

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

47.9RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
11%In 52-week rangeLow $322.00, high $587.27Low to high, past year
15%In today’s rangeRange $351.06 to $357.42Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
1.05×Volume vs average600.1K shares against 573.28K on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.11Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
52.5%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+1.42%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −18.6% to +21.4% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
49%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−38.6%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −50.1%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$348.08
Open$353.95
Day’s range$351.06 – $357.42
52-week range$322.00 – $587.27
Volume600.1K
Avg. volume, 3M573.28K
1-year change−25.6%
ATR (14)$16.11

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest2.72M
Short float8.6%
Days to cover3.2
Change since previous settlement+4.7%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p93 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
9 Nov 2026Sessa Daniel M EVP, Chief HR OfficerSale$353.17829$292.77K
9 Nov 2026Nassab Joseph EVP & Pres., Bldg Climate Sol.Sale$350.27245$85.81K
6 May 2026Kosel Chris VP-Corp Controller and CAOSale$544.80971$529.00K
25 Feb 2026Wall Shane D DirectorSale$540.01100$54.00K
4 Feb 2026TESKE TODD J DirectorSale$533.45700$373.42K
4 Feb 2026Kosel Chris VP-Corp Controller and CAOSale$536.50254$136.27K
11 Nov 2025TESKE TODD J DirectorSale$491.85600$295.11K
22 Aug 2025Kosel Chris VP-Corp Controller and CAOSale$591.86300$177.56K

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on LII

48% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Lennox International called the direction correctly.

−30%−3%−15%−1.5%0%0%+15%+1.5%+30%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

LII, 21 sessions47.7%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · LII sits in decile 6 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−3%−70%−1.5%−35%0%0%+1.5%+35%+3%+70%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewLIIALLEAOSCARRFERGJCIMASTT
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
LII Lennox International$352.02$12.04B16.1−25.6%+54.7%+1.42%positive8.6%
ALLE Allegion$191.98$16.19B19.2+14.9%+37.8%+0.4%positive2.9%
AOS A. O. Smith$64.24$8.74B15.8−1.6%+51.6%+0.57%positive—
CARR Carrier Global$54.20$44.34Bn/m−2.1%−58.4%+1.36%positive2.4%
FERG Ferguson Enterprises$256.47$49.67B—+2.9%−14.1%−1.79%negative3.1%
JCI Johnson Controls$139.33$83.63B31.8+14.3%−28.7%+2.76%positive1.5%
MAS Masco$84.68$16.32B14.6+36.7%+58.9%−1.02%negative3.8%
TT Trane Technologies$417.99$91.50B32.0−0.4%−25%+1.65%positive2.2%
ADP Automatic Data Processing$309.93$122.35B22.9+24.5%—−0.6%negative2.4%

Questions about LII

What is the intrinsic value of Lennox International stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for LII is $544.54 per share against a $352.02 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of +54.7%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the LII stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for LII is +1.42%, with a band from −18.6% to +21.4% and a 49% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +0.18%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for LII been?

48% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Lennox International called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.