The view
Ferguson Enterprises closed at $256.47 on 13 November 2026. The share price changed +2.9% over the past year, and the close sits +8.5% from its 200-day average and 20.9% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model places intrinsic value at $220.21, a gap of −14.1% against the price, so the price stands above the model's estimate. The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −1.79%. The published 63-session view also leans down, at −3.53%. The market regime is strong risk-off.
Next month: why the model view is negative
The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −1.79%, a probability of a rise of 8%, and a band from −21% to +17.5%. The strongest facts on that side are the strong risk-off regime combined with a market beta at the highest of the company's last five years, a Piotroski score of 0, a quality family among the weakest fifth of the S&P 500, and short-sale volume at percentile 66 in its sector. Close-to-close acceleration is also the lowest in five years. History does not agree: the 200 past situations like today's had a median 21-session return of +1.5%, and 57% of them rose. That is history, not a forecast, and it was not matched on regime or financial health.
Next 3 months: model view negative
The published 63-session view also leans down, at −3.53%, with a wide band from −30% to +22.9%. Here the two views point the same way, so there is no conflict between horizons to resolve; they can diverge when short-term momentum and slower valuation or balance-sheet signals pull apart, but today both sides lean down. The facts carrying the longer view are slower ones: debt to equity at percentile 67 in its sector, a debt-to-equity reading against its sub-industry at the highest in five years, and a weak filing-sentiment family. The past situations again lean the other way, with a median 63-session return of +1.8% and 55% of them rising. That is history, and it sits against the published lean.
The long term
The long-term case starts with intrinsic value at $220.21 against a price of $256.47, a gap of −14.1%, so the model's valuation sits below the market. The price-to-book multiple of 6.47 is high, even with book value per share at its highest in five years. Debt to equity is 0.93, at percentile 67 in its sector, and the Piotroski score of 0 points to weak measured financial health; no return-on-equity or cash-flow figure is available in this reading. The past situations like today's had a median one-year return of +10%, with 62% rising. That history leans up while valuation and balance-sheet facts lean against the price, so the long-term evidence is divided.
How sure we are
On this name, 59% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction of the outcome, somewhat above the base rate of about half across all names, which gives the near-term view modest but real support. The history of past situations rests on 200 cases matched on seven measures only, not on the 502 features computed for the company today, so it misses the regime and the financial-health readings that drive the model. The bands are wide: −21% to +17.5% over 21 sessions and −30% to +22.9% over 63 sessions, so either published lean carries limited weight against the spread of outcomes.