NASDAQ · Financials · Capital Markets · USD

HOOD Robinhood Markets

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77.86−3.49 (−4.29%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) closed at $77.86 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +2.67% over 21 sessions, with a 53% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $21.26, a gap of −72.7% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in HOOD was 4.6% of the float, 1.8 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $63.51 to $139.75.
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Overlay
1Y −41.45% · from $132.98 to $77.86
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $21.26, above this rangesessions ahead →2157.7195.92115.02132.9877.86
Previous close81.35
Open79.70
Day’s range76.61 – 79.96
52-week range63.51 – 139.75
Volume18,674,000
Avg. volume, 3 months21,067,102
Market cap$70.93B
Beta (5Y weekly)2.21
P/E ratio (TTM)52.12
EPS (TTM)2.16
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value21.26
Gap to intrinsic value−72.7%
21-session view+2.67%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions53%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+2.67% expected · 53 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+4.63% expected · band −30.5% to +39.7%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $21.26, 73% below the close
ConfidenceLow47% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Robinhood Markets closed at $77.86 on 13 November 2026, a change of −41.4% over the past year, with the market regime reading strong risk-off. The Intrinsic Value model places the company at $21.26 per share, a gap of −72.7% against the price, so the price sits far above intrinsic value. The 21-session view is close to flat at +2.67%, with a probability of a rise of 53%. The 63-session view leans up at +4.63%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The published 21-session view leans up only by a hair at +2.67%, and its probability of a rise of 53% sits just under even, so this is close to a neutral reading. On the weak side, the close is −14.8% from its 200-day average, momentum ranks low against the S&P 500, strength against its sector is weak, and the regime is strong risk-off. On the other side, the close is 22.6% above its 52-week low. The 200 past situations like today's, which are history and not a forecast, returned a median +5.1% over the next 21 sessions, with 59% rising. That history leans more firmly up than the model does.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view leans up at +4.63%, inside a wide band from −30.5% to +39.7%. Both published views point the same way, though the shorter one is nearly flat. The longer reading has more room for a rebound from a deeply negative year to show through, while the near term carries more weight from the risk-off regime and weak momentum. The past situations like today's, again history rather than a forecast, returned a median +8.4% over the next 63 sessions, with 63% rising. That history agrees with the lean and is somewhat stronger than the model.

The long term

The long-term case is split. Against the price, intrinsic value at $21.26 sits −72.7% away, and valuation is stretched: a price-to-earnings multiple of 52.12, at percentile 99 in its sector, and a price-to-book of 10.25, while value ranks among the lowest in the S&P 500. In support, return on equity is 21.4%, debt to equity is a low 0.26 at percentile 10 in its sector, operating cash flow reached $3.05B, revenue grew +11.8%, and the Piotroski score is 5. Several quality measures, including book value per share, sit at the highest of the company's own last five years. The past situations rose a median +10.3% over the following year, with 59% rising. Valuation drives the cautious side and quality drives the supportive one.

How sure we are

Each horizon deserves modest weight. On this name, 47% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, slightly below the base rate of about half, so the record offers little edge. The history rests on 200 past situations matched on seven measures, not on the 558 features in today's fingerprint. The bands are very wide: −29.7% to +35% over 21 sessions and −30.5% to +39.7% over 63 sessions, in line with volatility ranking among the highest in the S&P 500. Expected returns this small inside bands this wide carry limited conviction.

Written by our research agent from 558 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 5Distance
ValuationIntrinsic value $21.26 · gap −72.7% · percentile 1 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 52.12 · percentile 99 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 9 in the sector
Insider trades, 30 daysNet insider value at percentile 11 in the sector
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 51 in the sector
For the stock · 4Distance
Return on equity21.4% · percentile 75 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.26 · percentile 28 in the sector
Revenue growth+11.8% a year · percentile 66 in the sector
Forecast, next month+2.67% · 53 in 100 chance of rising

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+2.67%53 in 100
63 sessions+4.63%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources1 of 5 back the view
ValuationAgainstGap to intrinsic value −72.7% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Quantile modelweight 28%−0.51%Relative valuationweight 19%+11.36%
558 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Financials · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to HOOD’s +2.67%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Momentum+0.26%
Sector-relative+0.16%
Value
Liquidity
Macro sensitivity
Flows
Volatility
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Gapless return 1d Momentump84 → p8−76
Xs industry momentum rank 5d Sector-relativep84 → p10−74
Return 5d Momentump73 → p4−69
Xs ret zscore 5d Sector-relativep73 → p4−69
Xsec ig breadth Sector-relativep9 → p73+64
Xreg cross asset trend agree sector Patternsp72 → p11−61
Xreg cross asset trend agree spy Patternsp71 → p11−60

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum0.933p9p36−3Untested
Value compositeValue0.083p1p10Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.737p92—0Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.725p99p71+1Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p39p40+3Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.544p64p89−1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows−$9.03Mp24p44+2None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.008p73p690Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity2.14p100p610None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.301p1p1−2Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−19.11p3p16−5None · 18/32 yrs
Earnings yieldValue1.94p3p570Untested
Profitability compositeQuality0.590p70p580Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.620p95p630Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.002p19p62+1None · 24/32 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+5.1%
Share that rose59%
Low end (q10)−14.8%
High end (q90)+22.5%
CELH Sep 2019−13.4%
STAA Oct 2022−10.3%
LSCC Apr 2025+6.9%
ENPH Jan 2022−2.4%

Where HOOD ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 76 Financials members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places HOOD among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

52.12×P/EHigher than 99% of the sectorSector percentile 99
10.25×Price / bookHigher than 96% of the sectorSector percentile 96
—EV / EBITDASector median 13.10×
−72.7%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 99% of the sectorSector percentile 1
—Gross marginSector median 42.6%
21.4%Return on equityHigher than 75% of the sectorSector percentile 75
0.26Debt / equityLower than 72% of the sectorSector percentile 28
5 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$70.93B
Enterprise value$99.40B
Revenue, ttm$5.08B
Net income, ttm$1.97B
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm$2.16
Book value / share$10.98
Shares outstanding911M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$21.26

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

33.2RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
19%In 52-week rangeLow $63.51, high $139.75Low to high, past year
37%In today’s rangeRange $76.61 to $79.96Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.89×Volume vs average18.67M shares against 21.07M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
2.21Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
63.4%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+2.67%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −29.7% to +35% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
53%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−43.2%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −81.9%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$81.35
Open$79.70
Day’s range$76.61 – $79.96
52-week range$63.51 – $139.75
Volume18.67M
Avg. volume, 3M21.07M
1-year change−41.45%
ATR (14)$5.08

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest35.25M
Short float4.6%
Days to cover1.8
Change since previous settlement−3.4%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p51 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
2 Nov 2026Bazzano Dara Chief Accounting OfficerSale$86.291,800$155.33K
2 Nov 2026Bazzano Dara Chief Accounting OfficerSale$83.991,473$123.72K
2 Nov 2026Bazzano Dara Chief Accounting OfficerSale$85.161,000$85.16K
2 Nov 2026Bazzano Dara Chief Accounting OfficerSale$87.08200$17.42K
28 Oct 2026Robinhood Markets, Inc. Sale$24.77124,319$3.08M
27 Oct 2026Robinhood Markets, Inc. Sale$25.00189$4.73K
26 Oct 2026Robinhood Markets, Inc. Sale$25.00225$5.63K
23 Oct 2026Robinhood Markets, Inc. Sale$25.044,134$103.52K

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on HOOD

47% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Robinhood Markets called the direction correctly.

−40%−3%−20%−1.5%0%0%+20%+1.5%+40%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

HOOD, 21 sessions47%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · HOOD sits in decile 9 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−3%−90%−1.5%−52%0%−15%+1.5%+23%+3%+60%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewHOODAMPAPOBENBLKBNYBXCBOE
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
HOOD Robinhood Markets$77.86$70.93B52.1−41.4%−72.7%+2.67%positive4.6%
AMP Ameriprise Financial$519.43$45.09B11.1+11.5%−49.3%−0.56%negative2.9%
APO Apollo Global Management$123.47$72.91B39.9−6%−63.7%−0.41%negative5.2%
ARES Ares Management$134.61——−9.7%—−0.51%negative—
BEN Franklin Resources$36.02$18.41B16.3+62.3%+17.4%+1.34%positive5.5%
BLK BlackRock$1,222.91$189.07B24.1+13.6%−21.8%−0.65%negative1.4%
BNY BNY Mellon$153.41$103.23B16.0+37.9%−54.5%−0.59%negative1.5%
BX Blackstone$120.19$90.28B25.0−14.1%+43.1%+1.3%positive2.6%
CBOE Cboe Global Markets$375.42$39.17B19.6+44.6%−1.9%−0.13%negative2%

Questions about HOOD

What is the intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for HOOD is $21.26 per share against a $77.86 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −72.7%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the HOOD stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for HOOD is +2.67%, with a band from −29.7% to +35% and a 53% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +4.63%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for HOOD been?

47% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Robinhood Markets called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.