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EME Emcor

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659.36−3.41 (−0.51%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Emcor (EME) closed at $659.36 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +1.02% over 21 sessions, with a 55% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $645.70, a gap of −2.1% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was neutral.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in EME was 2.3% of the float, 1.6 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $564.01 to $951.47.
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Overlay
1Y +2.65% · from $642.34 to $659.36
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26Intrinsic value645.70sessions ahead →21531.95729.92828.91927.90642.34659.36
Previous close662.77
Open669.71
Day’s range650.96 – 669.71
52-week range564.01 – 951.47
Volume292,400
Avg. volume, 3 months418,639
Market cap$28.87B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.11
P/E ratio (TTM)21.79
EPS (TTM)34.62
Dividend yield0.2%
Intrinsic value645.70
Gap to intrinsic value−2.1%
21-session view+1.02%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions55%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Near intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, neutral for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+1.02% expected · 55 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+7.3% expected · band −28.6% to +43.2%
Long termNeutralIntrinsic value $645.70, 2% below the close
ConfidenceHigh70% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Emcor closed at $659.36 on 13 November 2026; the model’s intrinsic value is $645.70, a gap of −2.1%. The published 21-session view is +1.02%, inside a band from −21.7% to +23.7%, with a 55% chance of a rise. Over 63 sessions it is +7.3%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

Short-sale volume in EME sits at percentile 7 of its sector, lower than most peers. The market regime reads strong risk-off. Revenue growth is +28.8% a year. Across 200 past situations like today's in US stocks since 1995, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +2.7%, and 61% of them rose.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view is +7.3%, inside a band from −28.6% to +43.2%. Over the next 63 sessions the same past situations moved a median +8.4%, and 63% of them rose.

The long term

The shares trade at 21.79 times earnings, percentile 38 in the sector. Price to book is 7.73. Return on equity is 40.6%. Operating cash flow is $1.61B a year. The price is 16.9% above its 52-week low. A year on, the past situations most like today's had moved a median +2.6%, and 55% of them rose.

How sure we are

On EME, 70% of 283 matured one-month calls got the direction right, against 52.3% across every name. We update this note after every close.

Sentences filled by rule from the day’s figures. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 1Distance
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 15 in the sector
For the stock · 6Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 7 in the sector
Revenue growth+28.8% a year · percentile 90 in the sector
Return on equity40.6% · percentile 82 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 21.79 · percentile 33 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $645.70 · gap −2.1% · percentile 60 in the sector
Forecast, next month+1.02% · 55 in 100 chance of rising

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+1.02%55 in 100
63 sessions+7.3%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources2 of 5 back the view
ValuationMixedGap to intrinsic value −2.1% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 32%+0.03%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+5.37%
626 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Industrials · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to EME’s +1.02%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Liquidity−0.27%
Momentum+0.25%
Sector-relative
Sentiment
Crowding
Macro sensitivity
Patterns
Other 4 families

What moved in the data on 10 Nov

Features whose move on that session was furthest from their own normal, in standard deviations of their last 30 sessions’ moves.

Pattern confidence Patterns0.497 → 0.486−0.1σ

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum−27.79p8p0−1Untested
Value compositeValue0.500p61p180Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.520p46p510Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.455p88p830Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p84p46+1Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.381p6p2+1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p69p100+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.052p41p480Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.839p25p25−1None · 20/32 yrs
Pattern confidencePatterns0.465p85p96−2Untested
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.152p9p00Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−23.56p10p2−2None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.406p26p820Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.592p86p940Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.051p99p900None · 24/32 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+2.7%
Share that rose61%
Low end (q10)−10.7%
High end (q90)+18.2%
CBB Jan 2016+2.4%
SMCI Oct 2020+33.3%
SNEX May 2023+3.5%
DVA Nov 2023+34.7%

Where EME ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 81 Industrials members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places EME among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

21.79×P/ELower than 67% of the sectorSector percentile 33
7.73×Price / bookHigher than 66% of the sectorSector percentile 66
—EV / EBITDASector median 16.01×
−2.1%Gap to intrinsic valueFREEHigher than 60% of the sectorSector percentile 60
20%Gross marginLower than 88% of the sectorSector percentile 12
40.6%Return on equityHigher than 82% of the sectorSector percentile 82
—Debt / equitySector median 0.64
6 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$28.87B
Enterprise value—
Revenue, ttm$19.84B
Net income, ttm$1.52B
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm$34.62
Book value / share$97.66
Shares outstanding43.78M
Dividend yield0.2%
Intrinsic valueFREE$645.70

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

44.6RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
25%In 52-week rangeLow $564.01, high $951.47Low to high, past year
45%In today’s rangeRange $650.96 to $669.71Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.70×Volume vs average292.4K shares against 418.64K on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.11Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
60.1%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+1.02%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −21.7% to +23.7% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
55%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−30.1%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −36.9%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$662.77
Open$669.71
Day’s range$650.96 – $669.71
52-week range$564.01 – $951.47
Volume292.4K
Avg. volume, 3M418.64K
1-year change+2.65%
ATR (14)$33.13

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest752.24K
Short float2.3%
Days to cover1.6
Change since previous settlement−0.4%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p7 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
1 Sep 2026MCEVOY M KEVIN DirectorPurchase$736.792$1.47K
17 Jun 2026Lowe Carol P DirectorSale$844.50950$802.28K
17 Jun 2026MCEVOY M KEVIN DirectorPurchase$826.311$826.31
11 May 2026Reid William P DirectorSale$925.782,000$1.85M
1 May 2026Altmeyer John W DirectorSale$895.002,500$2.24M
30 Apr 2026Schwarzwaelder Steven DirectorSale$895.195,602$5.01M
30 Apr 2026Nalbandian Jason R SVP, CFO, Chief Acct. OfficerSale$856.43800$685.14K
30 Apr 2026Lind Robert Peter VP and ControllerSale$894.27675$603.63K

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on EME

70% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Emcor called the direction correctly.

−20%−3%−10%−1.5%0%0%+10%+1.5%+20%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

EME, 21 sessions69.6%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · EME sits in decile 5 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−2.5%−110%−1.2%−65%0%−20%+1.3%+25%+2.5%+70%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewEMEFIXJPWRALLEAMEAOSAXON
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
EME Emcor$659.36$28.87B21.8+2.6%−2.1%+1.02%positive2.3%
FIX Comfort Systems USA$1,112.50$38.92B35.7+14.6%−24.9%+0.31%positive2.5%
J Jacobs Solutions$158.23$18.52B44.0+3.4%−44%−0.76%negative3.4%
PWR Quanta Services$602.01$90.71B58.2+34%−57.3%+1.25%positive2.4%
ADP Automatic Data Processing$309.93$122.35B22.9+24.5%—−0.6%negative2.4%
ALLE Allegion$191.98$16.19B19.2+14.9%+37.8%+0.4%positive2.9%
AME Ametek$242.11$55.52B34.9+23.6%−22%+0.04%positive1.6%
AOS A. O. Smith$64.24$8.74B15.8−1.6%+51.6%+0.57%positive—
AXON Axon Enterprise$315.43$25.69B137.5−44.6%−91.9%+2.08%positive5.5%

Questions about EME

What is the intrinsic value of Emcor stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for EME is $645.70 per share against a $659.36 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −2.1%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the EME stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for EME is +1.02%, with a band from −21.7% to +23.7% and a 55% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +7.3%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for EME been?

70% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Emcor called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.