The view
On 13 November 2026, Carvana closed at $72.37, a change of +10.3% over the past year and 32.9% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $34.97, a gap of −51.7% to the price, so the share trades well above what the blended valuation supports. The published 21-session view expects +0.7%, a slight lean up. The published 63-session view expects −0.01%, a slight lean down.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The 21-session view leans up only by a thin margin. The expected return is +0.7%, yet the published probability of a rise is 36%, below even odds, so the model sees more small declines offset by a fatter upside tail. The band from −25.5% to +26.9% reflects volatility near the top of the S&P 500 and high macro sensitivity, which matters in a strong risk-off market regime. Short-sale volume at percentile 64 in the sector and a crowding family near the top of the index leave room for sharp moves either way. The 200 past situations like today's rose in 52% of cases with a median of +0.6%. That history is flat to mildly positive and agrees with a thin lean, not a strong one.
Next 3 months: model view negative
The 63-session view leans down slightly, at −0.01%, with a band from −37.7% to +37.6%. It carries the weight of a price far above intrinsic value, a close only +6% from its 200-day average with momentum near the middle of the index, and a market regime that presses on volatile, macro-sensitive names over a quarter. The past situations point the other way: they rose in 70% of cases with a median of +9.3%. That history is not a forecast, and it was matched on seven measures, not on the valuation gap or the regime. The two published views differ because the shorter one reflects the skew of a volatile stock, while the longer one gives more room to valuation and regime pressure.
The long term
The long-term case is split. Against it, intrinsic value of $34.97 sits −51.7% from the price, and price to book of 10.63 is high. In its favour, price to earnings of 11.50 ranks at percentile 10 in the sector, among the lowest, and the earnings yield against its sub-industry is the highest in five years. Return on equity is 51.5%, revenue grew +42.4%, and operating cash flow reached $1.33B, with cash flow to debt at a five-year high. Debt to equity of 0.92 sits at percentile 76 in the sector, and the Piotroski score is 6. The past situations rose over the following year in 79% of cases, median +35.9%. The near-term views rest on volatility and regime; the long-term argument rests on whether earnings strength or the valuation gap prevails.
How sure we are
Each horizon deserves limited weight. On this name, 43% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, below the base rate of about half across all names, so the record here is weaker than average. The history rests on 200 past situations, a reasonable sample, but matched on seven measures rather than the 645 features in today's fingerprint. The bands are wide, from −25.5% to +26.9% over 21 sessions and from −37.7% to +37.6% over 63 sessions, so both published views are small leans inside a broad spread of outcomes.