S&P 500 comparison · Materials

CF Industries vs Mosaic Company (The)

Prices at close . Model readings .

CF Industries

$119.92−0.51%
Month: negativeLong run: positive

Mosaic Company (The)

$18.33−2.45%
Month: negativeLong run: positive
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), CF Industries is the larger company by market value ($18.46B against $5.83B). Over the past year CF Industries returned +41.7% and Mosaic Company (The) −36.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The operating margin is 50.5% for CF Industries and -1.3% for Mosaic Company (The). Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.81% for CF Industries, with a 20% chance of a rise, and −0.66% for Mosaic Company (The), with a 31% chance. CF Industries' long-run fair value is $162.87, a gap of +35.8% to its price; the long-run model view is positive. Mosaic Company (The)'s long-run fair value is $21.27, a gap of +16.1% to its price; the long-run model view is positive.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
CF−0.81%
MOS−0.66%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
CF20%
MOS31%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
CF+1.3%
MOS+1.15%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
CF−21.3% to +23.9%
MOS−24.5% to +26.8%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
CF$162.8728 Oct 2026
MOS$21.2728 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
CF+35.8%
MOS+16.1%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
CF47.2%of 269
MOS48%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
CF+3.6%
MOS−18.2%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
CF−4.5%
MOS−19.6%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
CF+57.3%
MOS−22.5%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
CF+41.7%
MOS−36.3%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
CF+120.4%
MOS−51.5%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
CF+29.0 pts
MOS−49.0 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
CF68%close $119.92 in $74.33 to $141.66
MOS9%close $18.33 in $16.99 to $31.93
Against the 200-day average
CF+4%
MOS−23%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to
Market value
CF$18.46B28 Oct 2026
MOS$5.83B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
CF$19.22B30 Jun 2026
MOS$12.23B30 Jun 2026
P/Elatest filed
CF7.7
MOSn/mA P/E on negative earnings is not a multiple.
Price to book
CF1.87
MOS0.58
EV / EBITDA
CF5.25
MOS7.54
Free cash flow yield
CF11.46%
MOS−14.06%
Dividend yield
CF1.88%
MOS4.16%
Questions

CF Industries or Mosaic Company (The): common questions

Which is larger by market value, CF Industries or Mosaic Company (The)?

CF Industries, at $18.46B against $5.83B for Mosaic Company (The), on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, CF Industries or Mosaic Company (The)?

CF Industries' latest filed P/E is 7.7; Mosaic Company (The) reported losses, so its P/E is not meaningful (n/m). Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

How did CF Industries and Mosaic Company (The) move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year CF Industries returned +41.7% and Mosaic Company (The) −36.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for CF Industries and Mosaic Company (The) over the next month?

−0.81% for CF Industries with a 20% chance of a rise, and −0.66% for Mosaic Company (The) with a 31% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of CF Industries and Mosaic Company (The) compare?

The operating margin is 50.5% for CF Industries and -1.3% for Mosaic Company (The), and the gross margin 51.5% against 7.6%. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

Do CF Industries and Mosaic Company (The) shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.38 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

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The two company pagesCF Industries (CF) forecast and analysisMosaic Company (The) (MOS) forecast and analysis
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Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.