NASDAQ · Financials · Capital Markets · USD

COIN Coinbase

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127.65−3.02 (−2.31%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Coinbase (COIN) closed at $127.65 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was negative: an expected return of −0.18% over 21 sessions, with a 23% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $29.01, a gap of −77.3% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in COIN was 10.8% of the float, 2.9 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $125.38 to $303.96.
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Overlay
1Y −58.01% · from $304.00 to $127.65
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $29.01, above this rangesessions ahead →2190.87193.45244.75304.00127.65
Previous close130.67
Open127.27
Day’s range125.38 – 130.60
52-week range125.38 – 303.96
Volume7,910,100
Avg. volume, 3 months9,400,996
Market cap$33.80B
Beta (5Y weekly)2.79
P/E ratio (TTM)n/m
EPS (TTM)—
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value29.01
Gap to intrinsic value−77.3%
21-session view−0.18%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions23%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: negative for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthNegative−0.18% expected · 23 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+1.47% expected · band −35.3% to +38.2%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $29.01, 77% below the close
ConfidenceLow49% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

As of 13 November 2026, Coinbase closed at $127.65, a change of −58% over the past year, and sits only 1.8% above its fifty-two-week low. The Intrinsic Value model places the share at $29.01, a gap of −77.3% against the price, so the price stands well above intrinsic value. The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −0.18% and a probability of a rise of 23%. The published 63-session view leans modestly up, with an expected return of +1.47%.

Next month: why the model view is negative

The 21-session view leans down at −0.18%, with a probability of a rise of 23%. The strongest facts on that side are the trend and the backdrop: the close sits −26.7% from its 200-day average, momentum ranks among the weakest in the large-cap universe, a trend-weakness gauge is at its most extreme in five years, and the market regime reads strong risk-off. The band runs from −35.1% to +34.7%. History does not fully agree: across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +1.4%, with 54% rising. That is history, not a forecast, and it leans slightly the other way.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The 63-session view turns modestly up at +1.47%, inside a wide band from −35.3% to +38.2%. It points the opposite way from the 21-session view, which can happen when near-term weakness in trend and the regime weighs on the next month while stretched declines and steady cash generation tend to matter more over a longer window. Quality measures support that side: growth stability, operating cash flow growth and a consistency score all sit at the highest of the company's own five years. The past situations like today's, which are history rather than a forecast, rose a median +5.6% over the following 63 sessions, with 55% rising, in line with the lean.

The long term

The long-term case is mixed. Intrinsic value of $29.01 sits −77.3% from the price, a large discount of value to price. Earnings are negative, with a price-to-earnings multiple of -75.84, at percentile 0 in the sector, a price-to-book of 3.54 and a return on equity of -4.7%. Revenue moved −35% over the year and the Piotroski score is 4. Against that, debt to equity is a modest 0.48, at percentile 26 in the sector, and operating cash flow reached $3.85B. Past situations like today's returned a median +9.1% over the following year, with 55% rising, which is history and leans more favourably than the valuation gap.

How sure we are

Each horizon deserves limited weight. On Coinbase, 49% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, about the same as the base rate of about half across all names, so the record shows no clear edge here. The historical comparison rests on 200 past situations matched on seven measures, not on the 585 features computed today. The bands are very wide, from −35.1% to +34.7% over 21 sessions and from −35.3% to +38.2% over 63 sessions, in keeping with volatility among the highest in the large-cap universe, so either lean is a soft one.

Written by our research agent from 585 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 5Distance
Revenue growth−34.9% a year · percentile 0 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $29.01 · gap −77.3% · percentile 1 in the sector
Return on equity-4.7% · percentile 3 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 16 in the sector
Forecast, next month−0.18% · 23 in 100 chance of rising
For the stock · 2Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 25 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.48 · percentile 45 in the sector

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions−0.18%23 in 100
63 sessions+1.47%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources3 of 5 back the view
ValuationSupportsGap to intrinsic value −77.3% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeAgainst79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Quantile modelweight 28%−1.26%Relative valuationweight 19%−1.94%
585 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Financials · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to COIN’s −0.18%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Momentum+0.31%
Sector-relative+0.15%
Liquidity
Sentiment
Value
Macro sensitivity
Volatility
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Xsec ig breadth Sector-relativep9 → p73+64
Close to close acceleration Momentump5 → p67+62
Sflow spike Patternsp98 → p49−49
Consecutive down Momentump48 → p83+35
Volume ratio 63d Liquidityp33 → p68+35
Volume participation rate Liquidityp35 → p67+32
Return 2d Momentump31 → p2−29

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum−34.68p0p21+1Untested
Value compositeValue0.505p44p800Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.288p17p470Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.776p100p420Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p41p66+6Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.465p41p34−3Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p75p90+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.272p1p90Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity2.02p97p520None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.355p0p4−1Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−15.21p5p39−6None · 18/32 yrs
Earnings yieldValue−1.42p0p350Untested
Profitability compositeQuality0.356p29p660Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.667p97p39−2Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.004p48p90+1None · 24/32 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+1.4%
Share that rose54%
Low end (q10)−22.9%
High end (q90)+29.2%
BLBD Dec 2022+64.9%
NBR Feb 2020−73.2%
VFC Jan 2024+11.8%
MMSI Mar 2020+34.4%

Where COIN ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 76 Financials members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places COIN among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

n/mP/E
3.54×Price / bookHigher than 75% of the sectorSector percentile 75
—EV / EBITDASector median 13.10×
−77.3%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 99% of the sectorSector percentile 1
—Gross marginSector median 42.6%
-4.7%Return on equityLower than 97% of the sectorSector percentile 3
0.48Debt / equityLower than 55% of the sectorSector percentile 45
4 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$33.80B
Enterprise value$47.45B
Revenue, ttm$5.63B
Net income, ttm—
EBITDA, ttm—
EPS, ttm—
Book value / share$52.65
Shares outstanding264.76M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$29.01

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

32.4RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
1%In 52-week rangeLow $125.38, high $303.96Low to high, past year
43%In today’s rangeRange $125.38 to $130.60Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.84×Volume vs average7.91M shares against 9.4M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
2.79Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
68.5%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
−0.18%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −35.1% to +34.7% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
23%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−55.1%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −90.9%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$130.67
Open$127.27
Day’s range$125.38 – $130.60
52-week range$125.38 – $303.96
Volume7.91M
Avg. volume, 3M9.4M
1-year change−58.01%
ATR (14)$9.43

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest22.83M
Short float10.8%
Days to cover2.9
Change since previous settlement−3.9%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p25 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
2 Oct 2026Andreessen Marc L DirectorSale$198.006,838$1.35M
1 Oct 2026Andreessen Marc L DirectorSale$186.1813,676$2.55M
21 Sep 2026HAAS ALESIA J Chief Financial OfficerSale$205.1435,840$7.35M
21 Sep 2026Andreessen Marc L DirectorSale$205.056,838$1.40M
21 Sep 2026HAAS ALESIA J Chief Financial OfficerSale$206.421,409$290.84K
21 Sep 2026HAAS ALESIA J Chief Financial OfficerSale$207.111,371$283.94K
21 Sep 2026HAAS ALESIA J Chief Financial OfficerSale$203.67410$83.50K
8 Sep 2026Andreessen Marc L DirectorSale$181.1413,676$2.48M

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on COIN

49% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Coinbase called the direction correctly.

−30%−4%−15%−2%0%0%+15%+2%+30%+4%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

COIN, 21 sessions48.8%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · COIN sits in decile 2 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−1.5%−90%−0.7%−52%0%−15%+0.8%+23%+1.5%+60%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewCOINAMPAPOBENBLKBNYBXCBOE
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
COIN Coinbase$127.65$33.80Bn/m−58%−77.3%−0.18%negative10.8%
AMP Ameriprise Financial$519.43$45.09B11.1+11.5%−49.3%−0.56%negative2.9%
APO Apollo Global Management$123.47$72.91B39.9−6%−63.7%−0.41%negative5.2%
ARES Ares Management$134.61——−9.7%—−0.51%negative—
BEN Franklin Resources$36.02$18.41B16.3+62.3%+17.4%+1.34%positive5.5%
BLK BlackRock$1,222.91$189.07B24.1+13.6%−21.8%−0.65%negative1.4%
BNY BNY Mellon$153.41$103.23B16.0+37.9%−54.5%−0.59%negative1.5%
BX Blackstone$120.19$90.28B25.0−14.1%+43.1%+1.3%positive2.6%
CBOE Cboe Global Markets$375.42$39.17B19.6+44.6%−1.9%−0.13%negative2%

Questions about COIN

What is the intrinsic value of Coinbase stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for COIN is $29.01 per share against a $127.65 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −77.3%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the COIN stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for COIN is −0.18%, with a band from −35.1% to +34.7% and a 23% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +1.47%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for COIN been?

49% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Coinbase called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.