NASDAQ · Information Technology · Software · USD

WDAY Workday

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196.45+5.81 (+3.05%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Workday (WDAY) closed at $196.45 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +2.97% over 21 sessions, with a 74% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $96.71, a gap of −50.8% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in WDAY was 5.4% of the float, 5.4 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $110.36 to $236.80.
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Overlay
1Y −13.05% · from $225.93 to $196.45
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26Intrinsic value96.71sessions ahead →21136.72171.36240.64225.93196.45
Previous close190.64
Open193.68
Day’s range190.97 – 196.66
52-week range110.36 – 236.80
Volume1,731,200
Avg. volume, 3 months2,699,329
Market cap$48.39B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.21
P/E ratio (TTM)33.00
EPS (TTM)4.86
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value96.71
Gap to intrinsic value−50.8%
21-session view+2.97%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions74%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+2.97% expected · 74 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+2.95% expected · band −29.6% to +35.5%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $96.71, 51% below the close
ConfidenceLow44% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Workday closed at $196.45 on 13 November 2026, with the share price change over the past year at −13%, even after a strong recovery that leaves the close 78% above its 52-week low and +25.9% above its 200-day average. The Intrinsic Value model puts the stock at $96.71 per share, a gap of −50.8%, so the price sits well above intrinsic value. The published 21-session view leans up, at +2.97% with a probability of a rise of 74%. The published 63-session view also leans up, at +2.95%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The published 21-session view leans up at +2.97%, with a probability of a rise of 74%. The band runs from −19.3% to +25.2%, so the lean is modest next to the spread. Momentum carries the lean. Momentum readings sit at the highest of the company's own five years, and the price stands far above its 200-day average. Against that, the market regime is strong risk-off, idiosyncratic volatility is the highest in five years, and short-sale volume sits at percentile 89 in its sector. History, not a forecast: across 200 past situations like today's, the median over the next 21 sessions was +2.7%, and 59% of them rose. That history agrees with the upward lean.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The published 63-session view leans up at +2.95%, with a band from −29.6% to +35.5%. It points the same way as the 21-session view, so the two horizons do not conflict here. The facts behind it are the same momentum strength and quality measures at five-year extremes, including asset turnover and the investment composite. These sit against a strong risk-off backdrop and a valuation well above intrinsic value. History, not a forecast: the past situations like today's had a median of +7.2% over the next 63 sessions, and 63% of them rose. That history is consistent with the published lean, though the band is wide.

The long term

The long-term case is split. On valuation, intrinsic value of $96.71 sits −50.8% from the price, and the stock trades at 33.00 times earnings and 6.11 times book. Within its sector the earnings multiple ranks at percentile 38, so it is middling for software rather than stretched. The business side is firmer: return on equity of 16%, debt to equity of 0.46 (percentile 66 in its sector), a Piotroski score of 6, operating cash flow of $3.08B and revenue growth of +12.8%. History, not a forecast: the past situations had a median following-year return of +10.7%, and 63% of them rose. The near-term views rest on momentum, while the intrinsic value gap weighs against the long-term case.

How sure we are

Each horizon deserves limited weight. On Workday, only 44% of the 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, below the base rate of about half across all names, so the record does not support strong conviction. The historical comparison rests on 200 past situations matched on seven measures, not on the 606 features in today's fingerprint. The bands are wide: −19.3% to +25.2% over 21 sessions and −29.6% to +35.5% over 63 sessions. The longer horizons lean on history and on valuation, which point different ways.

Written by our research agent from 606 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 5Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 89 in the sector
Revenue growth+12.8% a year · percentile 32 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $96.71 · gap −50.8% · percentile 34 in the sector
Return on equity16% · percentile 36 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.46 · percentile 51 in the sector
For the stock · 3Distance
Forecast, next month+2.97% · 74 in 100 chance of rising
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 66 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 33.00 · percentile 49 in the sector

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+2.97%74 in 100
63 sessions+2.95%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources1 of 5 back the view
ValuationAgainstGap to intrinsic value −50.8% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 21%+0.03%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+6.65%
606 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Information Technology · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to WDAY’s +2.97%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Liquidity−0.1%
Flows+0.08%
Momentum
Macro sensitivity
Sentiment
Sector-relative
Patterns
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

From high 5d pct Momentump23 → p97+74
Relative volume 5d Liquidityp24 → p91+67
Xs volume ratio Sector-relativep6 → p70+64
Xs volume zscore Sector-relativep6 → p70+64
Gap size pct Momentump34 → p96+62
Volume zscore 21 Volatilityp1 → p59+58
Xsec ig breadth Sector-relativep85 → p29−56

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum57.15p97p990Untested
Value compositeValue0.483p57p950Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.462p24p860Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.382p14p840Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p69p740Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.621p93p87+1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p76p72+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.009p81p860Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.561p19p20None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative0.055p72p89+10Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum2.76p68p68+17None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.517p36p910Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.357p9p53−2Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.006p62p630None · 24/32 yrs
Days to coverCrowding5.37p93p960None · 4/6 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions+2.7%
Share that rose59%
Low end (q10)−12.7%
High end (q90)+19.8%
CTRA Aug 2009+6.4%
LYB Nov 2020+14.7%
WAL Mar 2024−0.9%
MRVL Dec 2025−4.1%

Where WDAY ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 31 Jul 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 75 Information Technology members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places WDAY among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

33.00×P/ELower than 51% of the sectorSector percentile 49
6.11×Price / bookLower than 53% of the sectorSector percentile 47
31.88×EV / EBITDAHigher than 70% of the sectorSector percentile 70
−50.8%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 66% of the sectorSector percentile 34
—Gross marginSector median 57.7%
16%Return on equityLower than 64% of the sectorSector percentile 36
0.46Debt / equityHigher than 51% of the sectorSector percentile 51
6 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$48.39B
Enterprise value$41.82B
Revenue, ttm$10.15B
Net income, ttm$1.20B
EBITDA, ttm$1.31B
EPS, ttm$4.86
Book value / share$26.23
Shares outstanding246.31M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$96.71

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

51.5RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
68%In 52-week rangeLow $110.36, high $236.80Low to high, past year
96%In today’s rangeRange $190.97 to $196.66Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.64×Volume vs average1.73M shares against 2.7M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.21Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
35.6%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+2.97%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −19.3% to +25.2% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
74%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−15.9%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −63.4%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$190.64
Open$193.68
Day’s range$190.97 – $196.66
52-week range$110.36 – $236.80
Volume1.73M
Avg. volume, 3M2.7M
1-year change−13.05%
ATR (14)$7.28

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest11.75M
Short float5.4%
Days to cover5.4
Change since previous settlement−7.9%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p89 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
12 Oct 2026Garfield Mark S. Chief Accounting OfficerSale$189.45918$173.92K
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$186.3646,607$8.69M
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$188.1914,228$2.68M
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$186.9214,294$2.67M
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$189.3612,732$2.41M
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$190.1310,472$1.99M
9 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$190.961,502$286.83K
6 Oct 2026DUFFIELD DAVID A Sale$186.6645,984$8.58M

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on WDAY

44% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Workday called the direction correctly.

−30%−2%−15%−1%0%0%+15%+1%+30%+2%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

WDAY, 21 sessions44%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · WDAY sits in decile 9 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−4.5%−110%−2.2%−50%0%+10%+2.3%+70%+4.5%+130%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewWDAYADBEADSKCDNSCRMDDOGFICOFTNT
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
WDAY Workday$196.45$48.39B33.0−13%−50.8%+2.97%positive5.4%
ADBE Adobe$243.08$94.61B16.3−27.9%+113.9%+2.15%positive4.8%
ADSK Autodesk$264.42$55.26B30.4−12.4%−18%+1.41%positive4.3%
CDNS Cadence Design Systems$323.01$88.63B65.7+2.4%−64.2%+2.36%positive2%
CRM Salesforce$217.84$179.28B17.1−10.9%−41.8%+4.27%positive3.5%
CRWD CrowdStrike$226.61$232.03B1,374.2+66.1%—+3.79%positive2.3%
DDOG Datadog$184.16$69.06B386.9−3.5%−93.8%+2.58%positive3.3%
FICO Fair Isaac$720.19$15.40B16.3−59.5%+72.9%+3.37%positive12.9%
FTNT Fortinet$127.22$93.47B58.2+54.9%−37.7%+1.79%positive2.2%

Questions about WDAY

What is the intrinsic value of Workday stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for WDAY is $96.71 per share against a $196.45 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −50.8%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the WDAY stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for WDAY is +2.97%, with a band from −19.3% to +25.2% and a 74% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +2.95%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for WDAY been?

44% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Workday called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.