NYSE · Information Technology · Software · USD

TWLO Twilio

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211.21−1.00 (−0.47%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Twilio (TWLO) closed at $211.21 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +2.04% over 21 sessions, with a 65% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $41.78, a gap of −80.2% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was negative.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in TWLO was 3.9% of the float, 1.9 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $105.00 to $308.40.
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Overlay
1Y +64.46% · from $128.43 to $211.21
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $41.78, above this rangesessions ahead →21160.16249.60294.33128.43211.21
Previous close212.21
Open213.22
Day’s range205.40 – 215.29
52-week range105.00 – 308.40
Volume1,884,700
Avg. volume, 3 months3,005,409
Market cap$32.68B
Beta (5Y weekly)1.93
P/E ratio (TTM)36.61
EPS (TTM)7.99
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic value41.78
Gap to intrinsic value−80.2%
21-session view+2.04%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions65%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Above intrinsic value. Model view: positive for the next month, negative for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+2.04% expected · 65 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+4.61% expected · band −42.8% to +52.1%
Long termNegativeIntrinsic value $41.78, 80% below the close
ConfidenceHigh59% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Twilio closed at $211.21 on 13 November 2026, after a share price change of +64.5% over the past year, sitting +9.5% from its 200-day average and 101.2% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $41.78 per share, a gap of −80.2% to the price, so the price stands well above the model's valuation. The published 21-session view is nearly flat at +2.04%, with a probability of a rise of 65%. The published 63-session view leans modestly up at +4.61%. The market regime is strong risk-off.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The 21-session view leans up only barely, at +2.04% with a probability of a rise of 65%, which is close to a coin toss. On the supportive side, operating cash flow margin is the highest in five years, and the balance sheet health and profitability readings are also at five-year highs. Against that, volatility sits among the highest in the S&P 500, and strength against its sector is among the lowest. The 200 past situations like today's are history, not a forecast: over the next 21 sessions their median was −0.1%, and 50% of them rose. That history matches the near-neutral lean rather than adding to it.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The 63-session view leans up at +4.61%, with a wide band from −42.8% to +52.1%. It rests on the same improving fundamentals: revenue growth of +19.9%, a cash flow margin at a five-year high, and flows from insiders and block holders that rank high in the S&P 500. The past situations like today's, again history rather than a forecast, returned a median of +2% over 63 sessions, with 54% rising, which agrees mildly with the lean. Both published views point the same way, with the longer one carrying a larger expected move. Chart-pattern readings sit at five-year extremes after a price and volume spike, which can weigh on either horizon.

The long term

The long-term case is mixed. Intrinsic value of $41.78 sits far below the price, a gap of −80.2%, and the price-to-earnings multiple of 36.61 sits at percentile 53 in its sector, near the middle. Price to book is 4.93. Return on equity is 14.9%, and the Piotroski score is 5, a middling reading. The balance sheet is light, with debt to equity of 0.11 at percentile 29 in the sector. Operating cash flow was $1.19B over the past year. The past situations like today's showed a median of −8.4% over the following year, with 43% rising. The near-term views draw on cash flow and operating gains, while the long-term picture is held back by the valuation gap and that weaker history.

How sure we are

Twilio's matured 21-session forecasts matched direction in 59% of 283 cases, which is better than the base rate of about half across all names. Even so, the current 21-session lean is close to neutral at 65%, and its band from −30.8% to +34.9% is very wide. The 63-session band, from −42.8% to +52.1%, is wider still. The history rests on 200 past situations, matched on seven measures rather than on all 597 features. The stock's high volatility and the strong risk-off regime argue for treating both horizons as low-conviction readings. Short-sale volume sits at percentile 71 in the sector.

Written by our research agent from 597 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 6Distance
ValuationIntrinsic value $41.78 · gap −80.2% · percentile 15 in the sector
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 71 in the sector
Return on equity14.9% · percentile 34 in the sector
Earnings multipleP/E 36.61 · percentile 56 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 47 in the sector
Revenue growth+19.9% a year · percentile 47 in the sector
For the stock · 2Distance
DebtDebt / equity 0.11 · percentile 17 in the sector
Forecast, next month+2.04% · 65 in 100 chance of rising

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+2.04%65 in 100
63 sessions+4.61%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources1 of 5 back the view
ValuationAgainstGap to intrinsic value −80.2% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Model bundleweight 21%−0.01%Gradient-boosted treesweight 19%+7.24%
597 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Information Technology · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to TWLO’s +2.04%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Sector-relative+0.25%
Liquidity−0.14%
Flows
Macro sensitivity
Value
Momentum
Sentiment
Other 4 families

What moved in the data today

Features whose S&P 500 percentile moved furthest since the previous reading, in percentile points.

Iv terminal growth rate Valuep90 → p7−83
Close to close acceleration Momentump7 → p86+79
Iv iv change 1d pct Valuep89 → p20−69
Anom zscore Patternsp79 → p16−63
Anom zscore x market stress Patternsp79 → p16−63
Anom zscore x volatility regime Patternsp79 → p16−63
Fe anomaly signal Macro sensitivityp79 → p16−63

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum6.52p57p60−5Untested
Value compositeValue0.340p40p210Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.482p30p690Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.655p66p720Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p81p17+2Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.550p81p77+1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p76p98+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment−0.014p66p900Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.435p7p2−1None · 20/32 yrs
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.172p19p100Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−7.61p51p35+5None · 18/32 yrs
Profitability compositeQuality0.400p18p730Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.800p66p830Untested
Price impact (Kyle’s lambda)Liquidity0.004p45p1−1None · 24/32 yrs
Days to coverCrowding1.92p27p200None · 4/6 yrs

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions−0.1%
Share that rose50%
Low end (q10)−17.5%
High end (q90)+18.5%
GTLB Apr 2024−3.7%
GTLB Mar 2024−10%
ERO Mar 2026+7.5%
QURE Aug 2019−21.4%

Where TWLO ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 75 Information Technology members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places TWLO among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

36.61×P/EHigher than 56% of the sectorSector percentile 56
4.93×Price / bookLower than 66% of the sectorSector percentile 34
84.29×EV / EBITDAHigher than 98% of the sectorSector percentile 98
−80.2%Gap to intrinsic valueFREELower than 85% of the sectorSector percentile 15
48.8%Gross marginLower than 76% of the sectorSector percentile 24
14.9%Return on equityLower than 66% of the sectorSector percentile 34
0.11Debt / equityLower than 83% of the sectorSector percentile 17
5 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$32.68B
Enterprise value$45.19B
Revenue, ttm$5.83B
Net income, ttm$1.24B
EBITDA, ttm$536.06M
EPS, ttm$7.99
Book value / share$59.27
Shares outstanding154.73M
Dividend yield0%
Intrinsic valueFREE$41.78

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

38.6RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
52%In 52-week rangeLow $105.00, high $308.40Low to high, past year
59%In today’s rangeRange $205.40 to $215.29Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.63×Volume vs average1.88M shares against 3.01M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
1.93Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
83.8%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+2.04%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −30.8% to +34.9% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
65%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−29.9%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −86.3%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$212.21
Open$213.22
Day’s range$205.40 – $215.29
52-week range$105.00 – $308.40
Volume1.88M
Avg. volume, 3M3.01M
1-year change+64.46%
ATR (14)$16.12

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest5.84M
Short float3.9%
Days to cover1.9
Change since previous settlement−3.6%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p71 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$290.245,156$1.50M
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$294.532,551$751.35K
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$288.021,934$557.04K
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$289.131,900$549.35K
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$293.141,600$469.02K
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$292.33800$233.86K
5 Oct 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$291.47501$146.03K
30 Sep 2026Shipchandler Khozema Chief Executive OfficerSale$294.555,168$1.52M

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on TWLO

59% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Twilio called the direction correctly.

−40%−3%−20%−1.5%0%0%+20%+1.5%+40%+3%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

TWLO, 21 sessions59%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · TWLO sits in decile 7 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−4.5%−110%−2.2%−50%0%+10%+2.3%+70%+4.5%+130%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewTWLOADBEADSKCDNSCRMDDOGFICOFTNT
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
TWLO Twilio$211.21$32.68B36.6+64.5%−80.2%+2.04%positive3.9%
ADBE Adobe$243.08$94.61B16.3−27.9%+113.9%+2.15%positive4.8%
ADSK Autodesk$264.42$55.26B30.4−12.4%−18%+1.41%positive4.3%
CDNS Cadence Design Systems$323.01$88.63B65.7+2.4%−64.2%+2.36%positive2%
CRM Salesforce$217.84$179.28B17.1−10.9%−41.8%+4.27%positive3.5%
CRWD CrowdStrike$226.61$232.03B1,374.2+66.1%—+3.79%positive2.3%
DDOG Datadog$184.16$69.06B386.9−3.5%−93.8%+2.58%positive3.3%
FICO Fair Isaac$720.19$15.40B16.3−59.5%+72.9%+3.37%positive12.9%
FTNT Fortinet$127.22$93.47B58.2+54.9%−37.7%+1.79%positive2.2%

Questions about TWLO

What is the intrinsic value of Twilio stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for TWLO is $41.78 per share against a $211.21 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of −80.2%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the TWLO stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for TWLO is +2.04%, with a band from −30.8% to +34.9% and a 65% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +4.61%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for TWLO been?

59% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Twilio called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.