The view
Interactive Brokers closed at $81.79 on 13 November 2026, with the share price changed by +12.9% over the past year, sitting −1.6% from its 200-day average and 39.2% above its 52-week low, in a strong risk-off market regime. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $28.11, a gap of −65.6% against the price, so the price sits well above the model's valuation. The 21-session view expects +0.23%, with a published probability of a rise of 48%. The 63-session view expects +1.38%.
Next month: why the model view is positive
The published 21-session view leans up, but only barely. The expected return of +0.23% comes with a probability of a rise of 48%, close to a coin toss, inside a wide band from −20.7% to +21.2%. Supporting facts are a very quiet tape and light short selling, at percentile 3 in its sector. The stretch since the last price spike and volume surge is the longest in five years. Against that sit weak momentum and the strong risk-off regime. History is not a forecast, but the 200 past situations like today's rose over the next 21 sessions in 62% of cases, with a median of +3.2%. That history agrees with the lean and is somewhat firmer than the model.
Next 3 months: model view positive
The 63-session view also leans up, expecting +1.38% within a band from −25.8% to +28.5%, so both near-term views point the same way. The case rests on quality that is high against large US companies, filing sentiment near the top of the market, and return on equity at its highest in five years. These offset a close −1.6% from the 200-day average and weak strength against its sector. The past situations like today's, as history rather than forecast, rose over the next 63 sessions in 66% of cases, with a median of +8.6%. That agrees with the lean and sits above the published figure.
The long term
The long-term case is split. Intrinsic value of $28.11 sits −65.6% from the price. The multiples are high: a price-to-earnings of 40.97, at percentile 93 in its sector, and a price-to-book of 6.64. Against that, return on equity is 21% and debt to equity is 0.00, at percentile 2, among the least leveraged in its sector. Revenue grew +28.1% and operating cash flow reached $15.91B. The Piotroski score of 3 is weak, however. Over the following year, the past situations rose in 59% of cases, with a median of +7%. Near-term views rest on quality and momentum context, while the valuation gap drives the longer caution.
How sure we are
Measured weight is modest at every horizon. On this name, 51% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction, about the same as the base rate of about half across all names. That record gives the 21-session lean little extra credibility. The history draws on 200 past situations matched on seven measures, not on the 551 features of today's fingerprint, so it captures the setup only in part. The bands are wide, from −20.7% to +21.2% over 21 sessions and from −25.8% to +28.5% over 63 sessions. Both readings are dated probabilities with wide uncertainty, not firm calls.