NASDAQ · Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels · USD

EXE Expand Energy

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88.53+0.73 (+0.83%)
At close · Friday, 13 November 2026

Key facts

  • Expand Energy (EXE) closed at $88.53 on .
  • On , the model view for the next month was positive: an expected return of +1.28% over 21 sessions, with a 44% chance of a rise.
  • On , the model’s intrinsic value was $234.34, a gap of +164.7% to that day’s price, so the long-term model view was positive.
  • On , the market regime read strong risk-off.
  • At the settlement, short interest in EXE was 7% of the float, 3.3 days to cover.
  • On , the close sat inside a 52-week range of $83.25 to $124.43.
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Overlay
1Y −24.22% · from $116.83 to $88.53
Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26▲ Intrinsic value $234.34, above this rangesessions ahead →2178.0898.62108.89116.8388.53
Previous close87.80
Open88.00
Day’s range87.40 – 88.78
52-week range83.25 – 124.43
Volume2,113,700
Avg. volume, 3 months3,155,047
Market cap$20.45B
Beta (5Y weekly)0.59
P/E ratio (TTM)7.31
EPS (TTM)11.50
Dividend yield2.82%
Intrinsic value234.34
Gap to intrinsic value+164.7%
21-session view+1.28%
Chance of rising, 21 sessions44%
Market regimeStrong risk-off

Closing figures, not live. Intrinsic value, forecasts and regime are the platform’s own models.

Opulence Alpha’s viewDaily note · after the close, Friday, 13 November 2026

Deep value. Model view: positive for the next month, positive for the long term

Model view
Next monthPositive+1.28% expected · 44 in 100 chance of rising
Next 3 monthsPositive+1.43% expected · band −24.7% to +27.5%
Long termPositiveIntrinsic value $234.34, 165% above the close
ConfidenceHigh58% of 283 past one-month calls right, against 52.3% across every name

The view

Expand Energy closed at $88.53 on 13 November 2026, with the share price changing by −24.2% over the past year and sitting only 6.3% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model puts intrinsic value at $234.34, a gap of +164.7% against the price, which is unusually wide. The published 21-session view leans up, with an expected return of +1.28% and a probability of a rise of 44%. The published 63-session view also leans up, with an expected return of +1.43%.

Next month: why the model view is positive

The 21-session view leans up, but only slightly: +1.28% expected, a probability of a rise of 44%, and a band from −13.6% to +16.2%. The upward side rests on valuation and earnings: the value composite, earnings momentum and the growth composite are all at the highest in five years for Expand Energy, and filing sentiment ranks among the highest in the S&P 500. Against that, the close sits −6.9% from its 200-day average, short-sale volume is at percentile 83 in the sector, and the regime is strong risk-off. The 200 past situations like today's are history, not a forecast. Over the next 21 sessions their median return was −0.5%, and 49% of them rose. That is essentially a coin toss with a slight downward tilt, so history does not back the lean.

Next 3 months: model view positive

The 63-session view also leans up, with +1.43% expected and a wide band from −24.7% to +27.5%. It rests on the same facts as the shorter view: a value reading at a five-year extreme, book value per share and cash-flow dividend coverage at their highest in five years, and strong earnings momentum. Weak momentum and a strong risk-off regime weigh on the other side. The two published views point the same way here. Over a longer window, fundamentals can matter more than short-term price pressure, but the two can also diverge. The past situations like today's showed a median return of +0.2% over the next 63 sessions, with 51% of them rising. That history is close to neutral and gives only faint support to the lean.

The long term

The long-term case rests mainly on valuation. Intrinsic value of $234.34 sits +164.7% from the price. The multiple of 7.31 earnings is at percentile 0 in the sector, the lowest in its group, and price to book is 1.00. Return on equity is 14.6%, debt to equity is 0.24 (percentile 21 in the sector, among the lower), operating cash flow reached $5.63B, revenue grew +10.8%, and the Piotroski score is 6. The near-term views lean on the same value signals but are tempered by weak momentum and the regime. Past situations like today's are history, not a forecast. Over the following year their median return was +1.7%, and 53% rose. That is far more modest than the valuation gap implies.

How sure we are

The record on Expand Energy gives the 21-session view modest weight. Of 283 matured 21-session forecasts, 58% matched the direction, somewhat better than the base rate of about half across all names. The history rests on 200 past situations matched on seven measures, not on the 643 features in today's fingerprint. Those situations lean neither way at any horizon. The bands are wide: −13.6% to +16.2% over 21 sessions and −24.7% to +27.5% over 63 sessions. Both are far larger than the expected returns, so each view is a mild tilt rather than a firm conviction. The long-term case leans on a model valuation gap that past situations like today's did not clearly confirm.

Written by our research agent from 643 features and the model forecasts. A dated model reading, not investment advice. How the model view is set: next month and next 3 months follow the sign of the model’s expected return over 21 and 63 sessions, positive above zero and negative below; long term reads positive at an intrinsic value gap of +10% or more, negative at −10% or less, neutral between. Confidence comes from this name’s own record of one-month calls: low under 50% right or with fewer than 60 matured, medium from 50% to 55%, high above 55%. A rule, not advice.

The evidence behind the view

Readings that point for or against the stock. The bar is how far each sits from the middle of its sector (or from even odds, for the forecast).

Against the stock · 4Distance
Short sellingShort-sale volume at percentile 83 in the sector
Return on equity14.6% · percentile 35 in the sector
Trend, 63 sessionsReturn percentile 37 in the sector
Revenue growth+10.8% a year · percentile 37 in the sector
For the stock · 4Distance
Earnings multipleP/E 7.31 · percentile 6 in the sector
ValuationIntrinsic value $234.34 · gap +164.7% · percentile 87 in the sector
DebtDebt / equity 0.24 · percentile 16 in the sector
Forecast, next month+1.28% · 44 in 100 chance of rising

The forecast

Expected return and the model’s band, per horizon. The 21-session view is public in full, the 63-session view without its chance of rising.

ExpectedBand
Horizon−40%0+40%ExpectedChance of rising
1 session••••Members
5 sessions••••Members
21 sessions+1.28%44 in 100
63 sessions+1.43%Members
Unlock the 1- and 5-session forecasts and the 63-session chance of rising, all 8 model voices, the exit map and alerts when this view changes.
Five sources2 of 5 back the view
ValuationSupportsGap to intrinsic value +164.7% · rule ±10%Members
RegimeSupports79% regime equity weight · rule 75% / 40%Members
TechnicalsMembers
FundamentalsMembers
Analyst coverageMembers

Model voices · 2 of 8 shown

Relative valuationweight 30%+0.9%Sector gradient-boosted treesweight 17%+1.4%
643 features · computed after every close

Feature fingerprint

Each family’s percentile in Energy · S&P 500 percentile beneath · 13 Nov 2026

What pushed the 21-session view

Contribution of each feature family to EXE’s +1.28%, against the market’s +1.2%. Two shown in full.

Momentum+0.2%
Sector-relative+0.13%
Value
Sentiment
Macro sensitivity
Liquidity
Flows
Other 4 families

What moved in the data on 10 Nov

Features whose move on that session was furthest from their own normal, in standard deviations of their last 30 sessions’ moves.

Pattern confidence Patterns0.133 → 0.175+1.7σ

Feature explorer

Value, percentile in the sector and in the S&P 500, change since the last reading, and whether the feature has a tested record.

FeatureFamilyValueSectorOwn 5YΔ 1dTrendRecord
Momentum, 126 sessionsMomentum−8.44p25p230Untested
Value compositeValue0.933p100p1000Untested
Quality compositeQuality0.586p58p540Untested
Realised volatility, 63 sessionsVolatility0.249p5p180Untested
Illiquidity (Amihud), 5 daysLiquidity<0.001p85p540Faint · 23/32 yrs
Short-sale volume, 21 sessionsCrowding0.654p95p89−1Proven · 15/18 yrs
Net insider value, 30 daysFlows$0.00p55p89+1None · 11/24 yrs
Sentiment scoreSentiment0.164p100p99+1Untested
Market betaMacro sensitivity0.333p70p60None · 20/32 yrs
Pattern confidencePatterns0.205p0p6−1Untested
Relative return, 21 sessionsSector-relative−0.001p45p80−8Faint · 26/32 yrs
Momentum, 63 sessionsMomentum−5.99p15p23−1None · 18/32 yrs
Earnings yieldValue14.18p100p680Untested
Profitability compositeQuality0.681p74p640Untested
Return volatility, 21 sessionsVolatility0.245p0p47+1Untested

History like this

200 past situations across 1,764 US stocks since 1995, delisted names included, matched on seven measures of today’s reading.

Median, 21 sessions−0.5%
Share that rose49%
Low end (q10)−10.7%
High end (q90)+12.5%
EAT May 2016+1%
EAT Jun 2016+5.2%
VICI Aug 2026−4.8%
HUBB Feb 2016+12%

Where EXE ranks across the S&P 500

Each line is all 496 companies, lowest on the left. Select a row for the full ranking page.

Statistics

Prices: daily close 13 Nov 2026 · fundamentals: period ending 30 Sep 2026 · “p” = percentile among the 21 Energy members

Fundamentals

Key statistics

Each bar places EXE among its sector’s companies. The grey tick marks the sector middle.

7.31×P/ELower than 94% of the sectorSector percentile 6
1.00×Price / bookLower than 100% of the sectorSector percentile 0
3.67×EV / EBITDALower than 91% of the sectorSector percentile 9
+164.7%Gap to intrinsic valueFREEHigher than 87% of the sectorSector percentile 87
—Gross marginSector median 23.4%
14.6%Return on equityLower than 65% of the sectorSector percentile 35
0.24Debt / equityLower than 84% of the sectorSector percentile 16
6 of 9Financial healthPiotroski F-score from nine accounting tests; 9 is strongestScale 0 to 9
Market cap$20.45B
Enterprise value$23.94B
Revenue, ttm$13.91B
Net income, ttm$2.66B
EBITDA, ttm$6.52B
EPS, ttm$11.50
Book value / share$84.43
Shares outstanding230.96M
Dividend yield2.82%
Intrinsic valueFREE$234.34

Industry ratios · Energy · reserves

Each gauge places EXE among 17 energy companies that report the figure. The tick is the industry median.

4.31BProved reserves (boe)Higher than 88% of energy companiesIndustry median 1.97B
$17.13BPV-10Higher than 79% of energy companiesIndustry median $7.45B

Technicals

Key statistics

Where today’s close and readings sit on each scale.

47.2RSI (14)50 is balance; under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought.Scale 0 to 100
13%In 52-week rangeLow $83.25, high $124.43Low to high, past year
82%In today’s rangeRange $87.40 to $88.78Low to high, 13 Nov 2026
0.67×Volume vs average2.11M shares against 3.16M on an average dayScale 0 to 2× · tick at 1×
0.59Beta, 5 years1.0 moves in line with the S&P 500 on averageScale 0 to 2 · tick at 1
24.6%Price swings, 21 daysAnnualised realised volatilityScale 0 to 100%
+1.28%Forecast, next monthFREEBand −13.6% to +16.2% over 21 sessionsScale −5% to +5%
44%Chance of risingFREEModel probability over the next 21 sessionsScale 0 to 100 · tick at 50
−26.7%Drawdown from highDeepest fall in 5 years: −30.4%Scale 0 to −100%
Prev. close$87.80
Open$88.00
Day’s range$87.40 – $88.78
52-week range$83.25 – $124.43
Volume2.11M
Avg. volume, 3M3.16M
1-year change−24.22%
ATR (14)$2.50

Ownership

Ownership and short interest

Short interest11.68M
Short float7%
Days to cover3.3
Change since previous settlement+4.3%
Settlement date30 Oct 2026
Short-sale volume, 21d (ours)p83 in sector

Short interest as reported twice monthly by FINRA; short-sale volume percentile from our own features.

Insider transactions · SEC Form 4

DateInsiderTypePriceSharesValue
12 Jun 2026Wichterich Michael Interim President and CEOPurchase$88.901,000$88.90K
4 Jun 2026Teunissen Marcel EVP & CFOPurchase$92.882,000$185.76K
4 Jun 2026Wichterich Michael Interim President and CEOPurchase$93.361,000$93.36K
7 May 2026Teunissen Marcel EVP & CFOPurchase$96.432,000$192.86K
6 Mar 2026Wichterich Michael Interim President and CEOPurchase$108.001,000$108.00K
6 Mar 2026Wichterich Michael Interim President and CEOPurchase$107.001,000$107.00K
19 Feb 2026Gallagher Matthew DirectorPurchase$100.661,000$100.66K
18 Aug 2025Viets Joshua J. EVP & COOPurchase$92.162,000$184.32K

Related studies

What the measured data says about the signals on this page.

Forecast record on EXE

58% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Expand Energy called the direction correctly.

−20%−2%−10%−1%0%0%+10%+1%+20%+2%Published 21-session view →↑ What followed
CalledMissedEach square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against what followed.

Against the base rate

EXE, 21 sessions58%n 283 matured
Every name52.3%n 374,970 · 2 Sep 2025 to 15 Oct 2026
Belief in the highest decile51.3%n 37,318 matured
… and 5+ voices agree51.2%n 36,828 matured · EXE sits in decile 5 today

Tick = 52.3% base rate, every name. How every forecast is tested

Peers

Same industry first, then the sector. Readings, valuation, return and short interest side by side.

−3%−40%−1.5%+38%0%+115%+1.5%+193%+3%+270%Gap to intrinsic value →↑ 21-session viewEXEAPACOPCVXDVNEOGEQTFANGKMI
CompanyCloseMkt capP/E1YGap to intrinsic value21-session viewModel view, next monthShort float
EXE Expand Energy$88.53$20.45B7.3−24.2%+164.7%+1.28%positive7%
APA APA$48.44$16.97B6.9+107.5%+250.2%−1.12%negative6.5%
COP ConocoPhillips$142.28$168.22B13.2+64.8%+60.6%+1.38%positive1.3%
CVX Chevron$219.89$432.18B15.0+49.1%+18.2%+2.06%positive1.5%
DVN Devon Energy$46.58$53.09B10.7+34.8%−21.3%+1.63%positive4.2%
EOG EOG Resources$158.32$83.04B10.1+49.2%+68.5%−0.28%negative3.1%
EQT EQT$52.81$33.04B11.5−12.4%−2.5%−1.58%negative4.1%
FANG Diamondback Energy$184.93$51.63B25.5+29.6%+118%+2.55%positive3.8%
KMI Kinder Morgan$31.92$71.11B18.6+21.6%−9.4%+2.29%positive2.2%

Questions about EXE

What is the intrinsic value of Expand Energy stock?

The Intrinsic Value model's estimate for EXE is $234.34 per share against a $88.53 close on 13 November 2026, a gap of +164.7%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.

What is the EXE stock forecast?

The published 21-session view for EXE is +1.28%, with a band from −13.6% to +16.2% and a 44% chance of a rise; over 63 sessions it is +1.43%. These are expected returns from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.

How accurate have the forecasts for EXE been?

58% of 283 matured 21-session forecasts on Expand Energy called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.

Is this investment advice?

No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation about any security.