S&P 500 comparison · Consumer Discretionary

Chipotle Mexican Grill vs Darden Restaurants

Prices at close . Model readings .

Chipotle Mexican Grill

$28.73+2.68%
Month: positiveLong run: neutral

Darden Restaurants

$216.56+1.22%
Month: negativeLong run: neutral
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Chipotle Mexican Grill is the larger company by market value ($36.75B against $24.77B). Over the past year Chipotle Mexican Grill returned −30% and Darden Restaurants +20.7%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 28.9 for Chipotle Mexican Grill and 20.9 for Darden Restaurants, and the operating margin 15.7% against 10%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects +0.3% for Chipotle Mexican Grill, with a 81% chance of a rise, and −0.38% for Darden Restaurants, with a 38% chance. Chipotle Mexican Grill's long-run fair value is $29.10, a gap of +1.3% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Darden Restaurants' long-run fair value is $200.25, a gap of −7.5% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
CMG+0.3%
DRI−0.38%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
CMG81%
DRI38%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
CMG+1.7%
DRI+0.78%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
CMG−24.1% to +27.5%
DRI−20.9% to +22.5%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
CMG$29.1028 Oct 2026
DRI$200.2528 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
CMG+1.3%
DRI−7.5%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
CMG46.8%of 269
DRI61.3%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
CMG−9.9%
DRI+11%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
CMG−12.9%
DRI+11.2%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
CMG−22.4%
DRI+20.4%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
CMG−30%
DRI+20.7%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
CMG−21.2%
DRI+77%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
CMG−42.7 pts
DRI+8.0 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
CMG10%close $28.73 in $27.31 to $41.42
DRI80%close $216.56 in $165.13 to $229.76
Against the 200-day average
CMG−15.8%
DRI+6.1%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to (CMG), (DRI)
Market value
CMG$36.75B28 Oct 2026
DRI$24.77B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
CMG—Not in the latest filing data.
DRI$27.06B30 Aug 2026
P/Elatest filed
CMG28.9
DRI20.9
Price to book
CMG19.77
DRI11.93
EV / EBITDA
CMG19.05
DRI12.69
Free cash flow yield
CMG3.61%
DRI4.27%
Dividend yield
CMG0%
DRI2.85%
Questions

Chipotle Mexican Grill or Darden Restaurants: common questions

Which is larger by market value, Chipotle Mexican Grill or Darden Restaurants?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, at $36.75B against $24.77B for Darden Restaurants, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, Chipotle Mexican Grill or Darden Restaurants?

Chipotle Mexican Grill has the higher latest filed P/E, 28.9; Darden Restaurants' is 20.9. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026 and 30 Aug 2026.

How did Chipotle Mexican Grill and Darden Restaurants move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year Chipotle Mexican Grill returned −30% and Darden Restaurants +20.7%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for Chipotle Mexican Grill and Darden Restaurants over the next month?

+0.3% for Chipotle Mexican Grill with a 81% chance of a rise, and −0.38% for Darden Restaurants with a 38% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of Chipotle Mexican Grill and Darden Restaurants compare?

The operating margin is 15.7% for Chipotle Mexican Grill and 10% for Darden Restaurants, and the gross margin 15.7% against 18.8%. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026 and 30 Aug 2026.

Do Chipotle Mexican Grill and Darden Restaurants shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.38 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

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The two company pagesChipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) forecast and analysisDarden Restaurants (DRI) forecast and analysis
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BrowseAll Consumer Discretionary companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.