S&P 500 comparison · Financials

Arch Capital Group vs Allstate

Prices at close . Model readings .

Arch Capital Group

$102.50+2.15%
Month: negative

Allstate

$250.20−0.6%
Month: negative
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Allstate is the larger company by market value ($64.83B against $35.75B). Over the past year Arch Capital Group returned +19.3% and Allstate +31.5%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 8.0 for Arch Capital Group and 5.4 for Allstate, and the operating margin 0% against 0%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.2% for Arch Capital Group, with a 45% chance of a rise, and −0.16% for Allstate, with a 45% chance.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
ACGL−0.2%
ALL−0.16%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
ACGL45%
ALL45%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
ACGL+3.9%
ALL+3.12%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
ACGL−14.4% to +22.2%
ALL−17.7% to +24%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
ACGL—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
ALL—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
Gap to pricefair value against the close
ACGL—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
ALL—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
ACGL36.8%of 269
ALL36.8%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
ACGL+7.8%
ALL+11%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
ACGL+10.5%
ALL+18.5%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
ACGL+6.9%
ALL+21.4%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
ACGL+19.3%
ALL+31.5%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
ACGL+152.8%
ALL+118.5%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
ACGL+6.6 pts
ALL+18.8 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
ACGL81%close $102.50 in $82.45 to $107.09
ALL71%close $250.20 in $185.28 to $277.22
Against the 200-day average
ACGL+6%
ALL+10.2%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to
Market value
ACGL$35.75B28 Oct 2026
ALL$64.83B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
ACGL—Not in the latest filing data.
ALL$68.30B30 Jun 2026
P/Elatest filed
ACGL8.0
ALL5.4
Price to book
ACGL1.41
ALL1.83
EV / EBITDA
ACGL6.37
ALL—Not in the latest filing data.
Free cash flow yield
ACGL17.89%
ALL19.87%
Dividend yield
ACGL0.12%
ALL1.73%
Questions

Arch Capital Group or Allstate: common questions

Which is larger by market value, Arch Capital Group or Allstate?

Allstate, at $64.83B against $35.75B for Arch Capital Group, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, Arch Capital Group or Allstate?

Arch Capital Group has the higher latest filed P/E, 8.0; Allstate's is 5.4. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

How did Arch Capital Group and Allstate move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year Arch Capital Group returned +19.3% and Allstate +31.5%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for Arch Capital Group and Allstate over the next month?

−0.2% for Arch Capital Group with a 45% chance of a rise, and −0.16% for Allstate with a 45% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of Arch Capital Group and Allstate compare?

The operating margin is 0% for Arch Capital Group and 0% for Allstate. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

Do Arch Capital Group and Allstate shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.71 (often together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

In the consoleCompare up to four companies with every model readingMembers see the 63-session chance of a rise and all four horizons, side by side in Research › Compare.
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The two company pagesArch Capital Group (ACGL) forecast and analysisAllstate (ALL) forecast and analysis
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BrowseAll Financials companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.