Company analysis
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) forecast and analysis
Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels · Reading of May 7, 2026
Last close
$32.56
Fair value (DCF)
$47.16
Gap to fair value +44.8%
21-session view
+4.12%
band −17.5% to +25.8%
63-session view
+3.51%
Market regime
strong risk-off
There is no newer reading for Coterra Energy Inc. than May 7, 2026. The figures below are that day's, not today's.
The reading in brief
Coterra Energy Inc. closed at $32.56 on May 7, 2026; the model's fair value is $47.16, a gap of +44.8%. The published 21-session view is +4.12%, inside a band from −17.5% to +25.8%. Over 63 sessions it is +3.51%. The market regime reads strong risk-off.
Research cockpit
Each source's reading of CTRA today, the stance it takes against the published view, and what would change it. The same board subscribers open in the console.
supports
+44.8%value gap · DCF against pricefair value $47 vs $32.56 · the DCF's own chance it is undervalued: 43%supports at +10% or more · against at −10% or lesssupports
+19unified technical score3-session run vs industry −3.58%, higher than 21% of sector; such falls have tended to partly reversesupports at +15 or more · against at −15 or lessmixed
6 / 9Piotroski F-scoreROIC 2.7% · D/E 0.22 · Altman-Z 2.27 · Q1 period to Mar 31, 2026supports at 7 or more · against at 3 or lessagainst
15%recommended exposuremarket-wide strong risk off · the regime's tilt for Energy +0.91 · as of Oct 8, 2026supports at 75% or more · against at 40% or lessno reading
Not in readingcovering in the last 180 days · our own estimate recordNo analyst-coverage reading for CTRA.supports in the least-covered 40% of its sector · against in the most-covered 40% — the most-covered fifth beat the median stock 49 times in 100 over three months, the least-covered 52 (since 2012) · no reading, no sideModel reading
what the published belief says · what only a portfolio can add
leans up+4.12%2 of 4 sources with a reading for · 1 without a reading · 21d belief · 8 voices
Price impactmeasured · this symbol
higher than 61% of sector (Kyle λ)Names with higher price impact have done slightly worse over the next week (the ordering held in 27 of 32 years). Order size itself is a portfolio decision.
Liquidity vs edgemeasured · this symbol
more liquid than 63% of sector (Amihud)Less liquid names have earned more over three months (the ordering held in 25 of 32 years). The portfolio prices the order.
Band legs · q10 / q9021 sessions
−17.5% / +25.8%
Risk checksper portfolio
Run in the portfolio, not on a symbol — 13 checks (position ceiling, gross exposure, sector concentration …)
Regime overridemarket-wide · Oct 8, 2026
scaled15% exposure
Reliability21 sessions
0.000 = the 21-session head has not yet earned a reliability score on settled outcomes.
Price impact in fifths · the next week
Illiquidity in fifths · the next three months
InsightProven signal
What it meansCTRA's price impact over 5 sessions is higher than 61% of sector; by illiquidity it is more liquid than 63% of sector. Both are measured on CTRA itself, not a portfolio.
What history saysOut of 100 stocks with the highest price impact, 49 beat the median stock over the next week; with the lowest, 50. CTRA sits in the low fifth today. That ordering held in 27 of 32 years since 1995. On average the lowest fifth out-earned the highest by 0.13 points over the next week. Over the next three months 52 in 100 of the least liquid fifth beat the median stock, against 48 of the most liquid. CTRA sits in the low fifth for illiquidity.
How to use itThese describe what an order in CTRA would face, not which way it goes. Order size stays a portfolio decision.
For the curious: Kyle λ at 5 sessions: rank IC −0.011 · t −6.3 · 27/32 years · 1,633 weekly samples since 1995 · Amihud at 63 sessions: rank IC +0.044 · t +3.9 · 25/32 years · 1,621 weekly samples since 1995Published belief band
q10 — μ — q90 per horizon · conformal · rank among names
1d+0.0%−4.0% · +4.1%−4.0% · +4.1%p79 of 1,330
5d−0.0%−9.3% · +9.3%−9.3% · +9.3%p96 of 1,330
21d+4.1%−17.5% · +25.8%−17.5% · +25.8%p94 of 1,330
63d+3.5%−42.2% · +49.2%−42.2% · +49.2%p94 of 1,330
Square = expected return, bar = the model's q10–q90 range, right = where the expected return ranks among 1,330 names. A hollow square has no published range — do not size on it.
Exit map
Where CTRA's 21-session band legs sit against today's close is in the console, with the valuation, technical, fundamentals and regime tabs.
Why it leans up, not down
posterior against a 51.7% base rate
P(up)0.86above a coin flip
E[r]+4.12%expected, 21 sessions
σ13.16%spread of outcomes
Rankp94of 1,330 names
E[r] / σ+0.31reward per unit of spread
Evidence balance · the belief's own arithmeticfor +2.93% · against −0.21% · net +2.72%Each voice's expected return times its weight; the rows sum exactly to the belief.
iv cqr returnw 49%+1.95%
lstmw 5%+0.41%
mimow 4%+0.30%
quantilew 17%+0.15%
iv cqr probw 13%+0.11%
dcf mean reverterw 6%+0.01%
bundlew 2%+0.00%
iv relativew 3%−0.21%
Outside evidence · measured, not voting
lowest in sectorhighest
Run vs industry · 3 sessionshigher than 21% of sectorfavours the belief
Beat its factors · 21 sessionshigher than 61% of sectorleans against it
Unusual volume · vs its yearthe lowest in its sectorleans against it
Price impact (Kyle λ)higher than 61% of sectorleans against it
Illiquidity (Amihud)higher than 37% of sectorleans against it
Short-sale volume · 21 sessionshigher than 18% of sectorfavours the belief
Tinted half = the side of the sector that has gone on to do better on that measure, in the evidence study since 1995, 2009. These do not enter the belief's arithmetic — they tell you whether the market's own record agrees with it.Context · measured, no signal
lowest in sectorhighest
Insider transactions · 90 dayssales 0 · purchases 0higher than 15% of sector · unchanged all year. Last insider purchase 1,528 days ago.No signal · contextWho is selling, not which way the stock goes: 0 of 88 insider feature-horizons have shown a proven edge.
Blockholder concentration0.26 HHI6 blockholders hold 31.1%. Their concentration is higher than 49% of sector and higher than 69% of its past year.No signal · contextWho controls the float, over 90 days: no 13D filing; passive 13G filings: 2. 0 of 32 ownership feature-horizons have shown a proven edge.
Days to cover2.3 dayshigher than 22% of sector · higher than 14% of its past year.No signal · contextHow many days of volume the shorts would need to close; it lags (reported twice a month), and 0 of 4 of its horizons have shown a proven edge.
10-year yield beta+0.105 · t 3.78higher than 63% of sector · higher than 99% of its past year.No signal · context0 of 96 macro-sensitivity feature-horizons have shown a proven edge.
Hollow square = where CTRA sits in its sector; no side is tinted because neither side has done better on these measures.Conditional hit rate · how the prior updatesPlatform-wide, not CTRA's own record. The tick is the base rate; a top-decile belief has not beaten it.
Unconditional, every name51.7% · n 342,931
Given a top-decile belief51.0% · n 34,163
… and 5+ voices behind it51.0% · n 34,163
base 51.7%
InsightModel output
What it meansThe belief leans up (+4.12%) and its own P(up) is 0.86: a positive average and a better-than-even chance of rising.
What history saysThe expected return ranks higher than 94% of 1,330 names today. On settled outcomes a top-decile belief has been right 51.0% of the time against 51.7% for every name. Proven measures read outside the belief: 6 — favouring it, 2; leaning against it, 4. The strongest of them, Run vs industry · 3 sessions, held its ordering in 32 of 32 years since 1995.
How to use itRead the rank and the range before the number; the band legs, not the average, say how wide the outcomes run.
For the curious: direction_prob, mu, sigma from ii_belief · rank among 1,330 names · base rate from the signal-validation study, platform-wide, Sep 2, 2025 to Sep 9, 2026What would change this reading
current reading measured · the trigger's source named
The fair-value gap falls below +10%+44.8% todaythe valuation rule on this tab
The 3-session run climbs back to the sector middlehigher than 21% of sector todayproven reversal · the next week
Short-sale volume rises into the top half of the sectorhigher than 18% of sector · higher than 22% of its past yearproven · one to three months
Voice agreement drops9 voices · 87% consistentportfolio policy sets the level
The market regime turns more risk-offstrong risk off todayregime tab · market-wide
Voice agreement · 21d
5 scored voices · belief as of May 7, 2026
bundle56%right on direction · n 188latest +0.2%
catboost51%right on direction · n 189latest +13.0%
lstm42%right on direction · n 189latest +7.4%
mimo53%right on direction · n 189latest +7.0%
quantile54%right on direction · n 189latest +0.9%
How often each model called CTRA's 21-session direction right on settled outcomes. Below 60 settled calls the figure is greyed: too few to judge.
Valuation & Predictions, Technical Structure, Fundamentals & Filings and Regime are in the console.
Forecast record on CTRA
49% of 151 matured 21-session forecasts on Coterra Energy Inc. called the direction correctly.
Each square is one matured forecast: the view published that day against the return that followed.
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Questions about CTRA
- What is the fair value of Coterra Energy Inc. stock?
- The model's discounted-cash-flow fair value for CTRA is $47.16 per share against a $32.56 close on May 7, 2026, a gap of +44.8%. It is an estimate with a range, not a price target.
- What is the CTRA stock forecast?
- The published 21-session view for CTRA is +4.12%, with a band from −17.5% to +25.8%; over 63 sessions it is +3.51%. These are probabilities from the platform's machine-learning models, re-estimated every trading day.
- How accurate have the forecasts for CTRA been?
- 49% of 151 matured 21-session forecasts on Coterra Energy Inc. called the direction correctly. Every forecast is published before its outcome is known and scored when it matures.
- Is this investment advice?
- No. It is a dated model reading of one company, published for research. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
A dated model reading, not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilities and can be wrong.
How the fair value is estimatedHow every forecast is testedDisclosures