Tractor Supply vs Ulta Beauty
Prices at close . Model readings .
Tractor Supply
$31.61−1.95%- Market value
- $16.58B
- P/E
- 16.0
- 1 year
- −43%
Ulta Beauty
$619.24−1.22%- Market value
- $26.67B
- P/E
- 18.8
- 1 year
- +18.4%
Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark
Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.
How the two compare
On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Ulta Beauty is the larger company by market value ($26.67B against $16.58B). Over the past year Tractor Supply returned −43% and Ulta Beauty +18.4%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 16.0 for Tractor Supply and 18.8 for Ulta Beauty, and the operating margin 10.3% against 12.5%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects +0.34% for Tractor Supply, with a 59% chance of a rise, and +0.09% for Ulta Beauty, with a 68% chance. Tractor Supply's long-run fair value is $37.61, a gap of +19% to its price; the long-run model view is positive. Ulta Beauty's long-run fair value is $560.52, a gap of −9.5% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral.
What the model expects
Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.
How the prices moved
Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.
What the market pays
Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.
How much of revenue becomes profit
Margins and returns on capital from the latest filing; revenue, net income and earnings per share over the trailing twelve months.
How fast the business grew
Change against the same quarter a year earlier.
Balance sheet and quality scores
Leverage, liquidity and two published scores: Altman Z (below 1.8 the distress zone, above 3 the safe zone) and Piotroski F (0 to 9).
How the shares trade
Volatility, sensitivity to the market, the deepest fall, short interest and how closely the two move together.
Tractor Supply or Ulta Beauty: common questions
Which is larger by market value, Tractor Supply or Ulta Beauty?
Ulta Beauty, at $26.67B against $16.58B for Tractor Supply, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).
Which has the higher P/E ratio, Tractor Supply or Ulta Beauty?
Ulta Beauty has the higher latest filed P/E, 18.8; Tractor Supply's is 16.0. Filings: quarter to 27 Jun 2026 and 1 Aug 2026.
How did Tractor Supply and Ulta Beauty move over the past year against the S&P 500?
Over the past year Tractor Supply returned −43% and Ulta Beauty +18.4%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
What does the model expect for Tractor Supply and Ulta Beauty over the next month?
+0.34% for Tractor Supply with a 59% chance of a rise, and +0.09% for Ulta Beauty with a 68% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.
How do the operating margins of Tractor Supply and Ulta Beauty compare?
The operating margin is 10.3% for Tractor Supply and 12.5% for Ulta Beauty, and the gross margin 37.1% against 39.1%. Filings: quarter to 27 Jun 2026 and 1 Aug 2026.
Do Tractor Supply and Ulta Beauty shares move together?
Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.23 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.