S&P 500 comparison · Consumer Discretionary

Home Depot (The) vs Lowe's

Prices at close . Model readings .

Home Depot (The)

$317.56−0.3%
Month: negativeLong run: negative

Lowe's

$198.40+0.11%
Month: negativeLong run: neutral
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Home Depot (The) is the larger company by market value ($316.83B against $111.31B). Over the past year Home Depot (The) returned −15.9% and Lowe's −17.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 23.1 for Home Depot (The) and 17.5 for Lowe's, and the operating margin 14.3% against 13.7%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.41% for Home Depot (The), with a 49% chance of a rise, and −0.19% for Lowe's, with a 47% chance. Home Depot (The)'s long-run fair value is $268.30, a gap of −15.5% to its price; the long-run model view is negative. Lowe's' long-run fair value is $205.70, a gap of +3.7% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
HD−0.41%
LOW−0.19%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
HD49%
LOW47%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
HD+0.71%
LOW+1.47%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
HD−20% to +21.4%
LOW−19.3% to +22.2%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
HD$268.3028 Oct 2026
LOW$205.7028 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
HD−15.5%
LOW+3.7%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
HD55%of 269
LOW49.4%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
HD+10.2%
LOW+5.9%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
HD−0.9%
LOW−14.5%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
HD−6.4%
LOW−16.5%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
HD−15.9%
LOW−17.3%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
HD−0.1%
LOW−3.2%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
HD−28.6 pts
LOW−30.0 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
HD35%close $317.56 in $277.15 to $392.05
LOW18%close $198.40 in $178.45 to $289.87
Against the 200-day average
HD−4.6%
LOW−11.9%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to (HD), (LOW)
Market value
HD$316.83B28 Oct 2026
LOW$111.31B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
HD$377.31B2 Aug 2026
LOW$148.62B31 Jul 2026
P/Elatest filed
HD23.1
LOW17.5
Price to book
HD19.93
LOW-15.68
EV / EBITDA
HD15.21
LOW11.71
Free cash flow yield
HD4.56%
LOW6%
Dividend yield
HD2.78%
LOW2.31%
Questions

Home Depot (The) or Lowe's: common questions

Which is larger by market value, Home Depot (The) or Lowe's?

Home Depot (The), at $316.83B against $111.31B for Lowe's, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, Home Depot (The) or Lowe's?

Home Depot (The) has the higher latest filed P/E, 23.1; Lowe's' is 17.5. Filings: quarter to 2 Aug 2026 and 31 Jul 2026.

How did Home Depot (The) and Lowe's move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year Home Depot (The) returned −15.9% and Lowe's −17.3%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for Home Depot (The) and Lowe's over the next month?

−0.41% for Home Depot (The) with a 49% chance of a rise, and −0.19% for Lowe's with a 47% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of Home Depot (The) and Lowe's compare?

The operating margin is 14.3% for Home Depot (The) and 13.7% for Lowe's, and the gross margin 33.7% against 33%. Filings: quarter to 2 Aug 2026 and 31 Jul 2026.

Do Home Depot (The) and Lowe's shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.89 (closely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

In the consoleCompare up to four companies with every model readingMembers see the 63-session chance of a rise and all four horizons, side by side in Research › Compare.
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The two company pagesHome Depot (The) (HD) forecast and analysisLowe's (LOW) forecast and analysis
BrowseAll Consumer Discretionary companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.