Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.
In short
How the two compare
On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), Caterpillar Inc. is the larger company by market value ($329.94B against $54.05B). Over the past year Caterpillar Inc. returned +36.2% and Paccar +3.8%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 37.3 for Caterpillar Inc. and 22.0 for Paccar, and the operating margin 20.9% against 12.9%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects +0.47% for Caterpillar Inc., with a 73% chance of a rise, and +0.72% for Paccar, with a 83% chance. Caterpillar Inc.'s long-run fair value is $724.08, a gap of +1.5% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Paccar's long-run fair value is $83.93, a gap of −18.1% to its price; the long-run model view is negative.
Model view
What the model expects
Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.
Model readings:
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
CAT+0.47%
PCAR+0.72%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
CAT73%
PCAR83%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
CAT+2.18%
PCAR+2.13%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
CAT−21% to +25.4%
PCAR−14.9% to +19.1%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
CAT$724.0828 Oct 2026
PCAR$83.9328 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
CAT+1.5%
PCAR−18.1%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
CAT71.7%of 269
PCAR58.4%of 269
Price performance
How the prices moved
Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.
Closes to
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
CAT−13.7%
PCAR−8.4%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
CAT−11.8%
PCAR−12.8%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
CAT+25.3%
PCAR−5.7%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
CAT+36.2%
PCAR+3.8%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
CAT+280.7%
PCAR+112.3%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
CAT+23.5 pts
PCAR−8.9 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
CAT35%close $713.38 in $518.50 to $1,071.47
PCAR22%close $102.42 in $91.91 to $138.87
Against the 200-day average
CAT−11.8%
PCAR−14.6%
Valuation
What the market pays
Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.
Filings: quarter to (CAT), (PCAR)
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Market value
CAT$329.94B28 Oct 2026
PCAR$54.05B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
CAT—Not in the latest filing data.
PCAR—Not in the latest filing data.
P/Elatest filed
CAT37.3
PCAR22.0
Price to book
CAT25.40
PCAR2.77
EV / EBITDA
CAT32.58
PCAR12.03
Free cash flow yield
CAT2.17%
PCAR5.26%
Dividend yield
CAT0.57%
PCAR2.5%
Profitability
How much of revenue becomes profit
Margins and returns on capital from the latest filing; revenue, net income and earnings per share over the trailing twelve months.
Filings: quarter to (CAT), (PCAR)
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Gross margin
CAT37.8%
PCAR20.5%
Operating margin
CAT20.9%
PCAR12.9%
Net margin
CAT31.6%
PCAR10.7%
Return on equity
CAT68%
PCAR12.6%
Return on invested capital
CAT17%
PCAR3.8%
Revenuetrailing twelve months
CAT$71.56B
PCAR$29.71B
Net incometrailing twelve months
CAT$13.19B
PCAR$2.63B
Earnings per sharetrailing twelve months
CAT$28.53
PCAR$4.99
Growth
How fast the business grew
Change against the same quarter a year earlier.
Filings: quarter to (CAT), (PCAR)
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Revenue growthyear over year
CAT+24%
PCAR+19%
Earnings growthyear over year
CAT+197.8%
PCAR+43.6%
Free cash flow growthyear over year
CAT+56.6%
PCAR−23.1%
Financial health
Balance sheet and quality scores
Leverage, liquidity and two published scores: Altman Z (below 1.8 the distress zone, above 3 the safe zone) and Piotroski F (0 to 9).
Filings: quarter to (CAT), (PCAR)
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Debt to equity
CAT—Not in the latest filing data.
PCAR—Not in the latest filing data.
Current ratiocurrent assets over current liabilities
CAT1.37
PCAR—Not in the latest filing data.
Altman Z-score
CAT5.02
PCAR—Not in the latest filing data.
Piotroski F-scoreout of 9
CAT6 of 9
PCAR5 of 9
Trading and risk
How the shares trade
Volatility, sensitivity to the market, the deepest fall, short interest and how closely the two move together.
Closes to ; FINRA settlement
MeasureCaterpillar Inc. · CATPaccar · PCAR
Volatility21 sessions, annualised
CAT38.2%
PCAR22.4%
Betaagainst the S&P 500, 5 years
CAT1.02
PCAR0.76
Deepest fallpeak to trough, 5 years
CAT−35.4%
PCAR−27.7%
Market regimeour reading at each model date
CATStrong risk-off
PCARStrong risk-off
Short interestshare of the float
CAT1.7%settled 30 Sep 2026
PCAR2.3%settled 30 Sep 2026
Days to covershort shares over average volume
CAT3.2
PCAR2.7
Average volume3 months, shares a day
CAT2.6M
PCAR3.31M
Moving togethercorrelation of daily returns, past year0.45, loosely together−1 opposite0 unrelated+1 together
Questions
Caterpillar Inc. or Paccar: common questions
Which is larger by market value, Caterpillar Inc. or Paccar?
Caterpillar Inc., at $329.94B against $54.05B for Paccar, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).
Which has the higher P/E ratio, Caterpillar Inc. or Paccar?
Caterpillar Inc. has the higher latest filed P/E, 37.3; Paccar's is 22.0. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026 and 30 Sep 2026.
How did Caterpillar Inc. and Paccar move over the past year against the S&P 500?
Over the past year Caterpillar Inc. returned +36.2% and Paccar +3.8%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
What does the model expect for Caterpillar Inc. and Paccar over the next month?
+0.47% for Caterpillar Inc. with a 73% chance of a rise, and +0.72% for Paccar with a 83% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.
How do the operating margins of Caterpillar Inc. and Paccar compare?
The operating margin is 20.9% for Caterpillar Inc. and 12.9% for Paccar, and the gross margin 37.8% against 20.5%. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026 and 30 Sep 2026.
Do Caterpillar Inc. and Paccar shares move together?
Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.45 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.
In the consoleCompare up to four companies with every model readingMembers see the 63-session chance of a rise and all four horizons, side by side in Research › Compare.
Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.