S&P 500 comparison · Consumer Discretionary

AutoZone vs CarMax

Prices at close . Model readings .

AutoZone

$3,156.76+0.43%
Month: negativeLong run: negative

CarMax

$53.99+0.19%
Month: negativeLong run: negative
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), AutoZone is the larger company by market value ($53.24B against $7.69B). Over the past year AutoZone returned −17.2% and CarMax +19.8%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 19.4 for AutoZone and 27.5 for CarMax, and the operating margin 18.3% against -1.2%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.74% for AutoZone, with a 13% chance of a rise, and −0.36% for CarMax, with a 31% chance. AutoZone's long-run fair value is $2,246.59, a gap of −28.8% to its price; the long-run model view is negative. CarMax's long-run fair value is $43.62, a gap of −19.2% to its price; the long-run model view is negative.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
AZO−0.74%
KMX−0.36%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
AZO13%
KMX31%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
AZO−0.28%
KMX+1.63%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
AZO−22.3% to +21.8%
KMX−25.7% to +28.9%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
AZO$2,246.5928 Oct 2026
KMX$43.6228 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
AZO−28.8%
KMX−19.2%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
AZO55.4%of 269
KMX54.3%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
AZO+9.8%
KMX−8.8%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
AZO−10.4%
KMX+40.8%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
AZO−6.9%
KMX+39.7%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
AZO−17.2%
KMX+19.8%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
AZO+78.4%
KMX−61%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
AZO−29.9 pts
KMX+7.1 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
AZO34%close $3,156.76 in $2,730.65 to $3,996.25
KMX68%close $53.99 in $30.26 to $65.28
Against the 200-day average
AZO−3.3%
KMX+9.5%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to (AZO), (KMX)
Market value
AZO$53.24B28 Oct 2026
KMX$7.69B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
AZO$58.71B29 Aug 2026
KMX$25.94B31 Aug 2026
P/Elatest filed
AZO19.4
KMX27.5
Price to book
AZO-19.96
KMX1.39
EV / EBITDA
AZO13.32
KMX84.93
Free cash flow yield
AZO3.63%
KMX13.12%
Dividend yield
AZO0%
KMX0%
Questions

AutoZone or CarMax: common questions

Which is larger by market value, AutoZone or CarMax?

AutoZone, at $53.24B against $7.69B for CarMax, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, AutoZone or CarMax?

CarMax has the higher latest filed P/E, 27.5; AutoZone's is 19.4. Filings: quarter to 29 Aug 2026 and 31 Aug 2026.

How did AutoZone and CarMax move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year AutoZone returned −17.2% and CarMax +19.8%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for AutoZone and CarMax over the next month?

−0.74% for AutoZone with a 13% chance of a rise, and −0.36% for CarMax with a 31% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of AutoZone and CarMax compare?

The operating margin is 18.3% for AutoZone and -1.2% for CarMax, and the gross margin 52.3% against 10.2%. Filings: quarter to 29 Aug 2026 and 31 Aug 2026.

Do AutoZone and CarMax shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.11 (mostly independent); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

In the consoleCompare up to four companies with every model readingMembers see the 63-session chance of a rise and all four horizons, side by side in Research › Compare.
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The two company pagesAutoZone (AZO) forecast and analysisCarMax (KMX) forecast and analysis
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BrowseAll Consumer Discretionary companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.