S&P 500 comparison · Financials

American Express vs Capital One

Prices at close . Model readings .

American Express

$317.94+1.61%
Month: negativeLong run: neutral

Capital One

$204.88+0.71%
Month: negative
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), American Express is the larger company by market value ($214.29B against $127.50B). Over the past year American Express returned −11.4% and Capital One −6.9%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 17.6 for American Express and 15.4 for Capital One, and the operating margin 0% against 0%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects −0.59% for American Express, with a 40% chance of a rise, and −0.55% for Capital One, with a 46% chance. American Express' long-run fair value is $322.20, a gap of +1.3% to its price; the long-run model view is neutral. Capital One has no published fair value today.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
AXP−0.59%
COF−0.55%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
AXP40%
COF46%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
AXP+1.77%
COF+2.38%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
AXP−16.5% to +20%
COF−16.6% to +21.4%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
AXP$322.2028 Oct 2026
COF—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
Gap to pricefair value against the close
AXP+1.3%
COF—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
AXP43.9%of 269
COF35.7%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
AXP+4.1%
COF+4.3%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
AXP+1%
COF+8.2%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
AXP−13.4%
COF−14.5%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
AXP−11.4%
COF−6.9%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
AXP+87.7%
COF+29.1%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
AXP−24.1 pts
COF−19.6 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
AXP30%close $317.94 in $289.26 to $384.36
COF38%close $204.88 in $173.62 to $256.64
Against the 200-day average
AXP−2.4%
COF+2.2%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to (AXP), (COF)
Market value
AXP$214.29B28 Oct 2026
COF$127.50B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
AXP$264.92B30 Sep 2026
COF$175.84B30 Jun 2026
P/Elatest filed
AXP17.6
COF15.4
Price to book
AXP5.73
COF2.05
EV / EBITDA
AXP13.59
COF6.82
Free cash flow yield
AXP6.79%
COF16.4%
Dividend yield
AXP1.22%
COF0.9%
Questions

American Express or Capital One: common questions

Which is larger by market value, American Express or Capital One?

American Express, at $214.29B against $127.50B for Capital One, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, American Express or Capital One?

American Express has the higher latest filed P/E, 17.6; Capital One's is 15.4. Filings: quarter to 30 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2026.

How did American Express and Capital One move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year American Express returned −11.4% and Capital One −6.9%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for American Express and Capital One over the next month?

−0.59% for American Express with a 40% chance of a rise, and −0.55% for Capital One with a 46% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of American Express and Capital One compare?

The operating margin is 0% for American Express and 0% for Capital One. Filings: quarter to 30 Sep 2026 and 30 Jun 2026.

Do American Express and Capital One shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.76 (often together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

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The two company pagesAmerican Express (AXP) forecast and analysisCapital One (COF) forecast and analysis
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BrowseAll Financials companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.