S&P 500 comparison · Utilities

AES Corporation vs NRG Energy

Prices at close . Model readings .

AES Corporation

$14.98−0.33%
Month: positive

NRG Energy

$96.97+1.78%
Month: negativeLong run: negative
Price change

Price change, with the S&P 500 as a benchmark

Percent change in each close since the start of the chosen range, for both companies and the S&P 500 (SPY). Daily closes over the last year, weekly before that and monthly before five years.

In short

How the two compare

On the latest closes (28 Oct 2026), NRG Energy is the larger company by market value ($20.56B against $10.71B). Over the past year AES Corporation returned +8.5% and NRG Energy −43.1%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. The latest filed P/E is 7.3 for AES Corporation and 21.0 for NRG Energy, and the operating margin 4.4% against 12.6%. Over the next 21 sessions the model expects +0.78% for AES Corporation, with a 63% chance of a rise, and −0.3% for NRG Energy, with a 43% chance. AES Corporation has no published fair value today. NRG Energy's long-run fair value is $58.17, a gap of −40% to its price; the long-run model view is negative.

Model view

What the model expects

Expected returns and the chance of a rise from our forecasting models, and the long-run fair value against the price. Readings, not advice.

Model readings:
Expected returnnext 21 sessions
AES+0.78%
NRG−0.3%
Chance of a risenext 21 sessions
AES63%
NRG43%
Expected returnnext 63 sessions
AES+2.31%
NRG−0.11%
Range of outcomes63 sessions, 80% band
AES−2.7% to +7.3%
NRG−29.1% to +28.9%
Chance of a risenext 63 sessionsMembers only · see plans
Long-run fair valueintrinsic value model
AES—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
NRG$58.1728 Oct 2026
Gap to pricefair value against the close
AES—The model's fair value falls outside its own interval or at the gap clamp, so it is not a measurement.
NRG−40%
Past readings that matchedsign of the 21-session outcome
AES56.9%of 269
NRG53.2%of 269
Price performance

How the prices moved

Price change over each period, with the S&P 500 (SPY) for comparison.

Closes to
1 monthS&P 500: +1.1%
AES+0.8%
NRG−0.2%
6 monthsS&P 500: +8.5%
AES+6.2%
NRG−34.5%
Year to dateS&P 500: +13.3%
AES+8.3%
NRG−38.5%
1 yearS&P 500: +12.7%
AES+8.5%
NRG−43.1%
5 yearsS&P 500: +70.7%
AES−26.8%
NRG+167%
1 year against the S&P 500percentage points
AES−4.2 pts
NRG−55.8 pts
Position in the 52-week range0% low, 100% high
AES50%close $14.98 in $12.74 to $17.23
NRG6%close $96.97 in $90.80 to $188.71
Against the 200-day average
AES+2.9%
NRG−28.3%
Valuation

What the market pays

Size and the multiples from the latest filed quarter. A P/E on losses reads n/m.

Filings: quarter to
Market value
AES$10.71B28 Oct 2026
NRG$20.56B28 Oct 2026
Enterprise valueat the last filing
AES—Not in the latest filing data.
NRG$47.21B30 Jun 2026
P/Elatest filed
AES7.3
NRG21.0
Price to book
AES1.07
NRG6.38
EV / EBITDA
AES4.54
NRG10.79
Free cash flow yield
AES−16.41%
NRG1.12%
Dividend yield
AES4.79%
NRG1.37%
Questions

AES Corporation or NRG Energy: common questions

Which is larger by market value, AES Corporation or NRG Energy?

NRG Energy, at $20.56B against $10.71B for AES Corporation, on the latest closes (28 Oct 2026).

Which has the higher P/E ratio, AES Corporation or NRG Energy?

NRG Energy has the higher latest filed P/E, 21.0; AES Corporation's is 7.3. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

How did AES Corporation and NRG Energy move over the past year against the S&P 500?

Over the past year AES Corporation returned +8.5% and NRG Energy −43.1%, while the S&P 500 returned +12.7%. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

What does the model expect for AES Corporation and NRG Energy over the next month?

+0.78% for AES Corporation with a 63% chance of a rise, and −0.3% for NRG Energy with a 43% chance, over the next 21 sessions. Model readings 28 Oct 2026. These are model readings, not advice.

How do the operating margins of AES Corporation and NRG Energy compare?

The operating margin is 4.4% for AES Corporation and 12.6% for NRG Energy, and the gross margin 20.2% against 12.6%. Filings: quarter to 30 Jun 2026.

Do AES Corporation and NRG Energy shares move together?

Over the past year the correlation of their daily returns was 0.20 (loosely together); 1 means they always move together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite. Prices at close 28 Oct 2026.

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The two company pagesAES Corporation (AES) forecast and analysisNRG Energy (NRG) forecast and analysis
BrowseAll Utilities companiesAll comparisonsHow the model readings are made

Model readings are research estimates, not investment advice. Prices: daily closes. Fundamentals: the latest SEC filings. Short interest: FINRA, settlement 30 Sep 2026. A dash means the figure is not in our data; it is never shown as zero. The model view follows a published rule: next month by the sign of the expected return, the long run positive at a fair value 10% or more above the price and negative at 10% or more below it.