The view
On 13 November 2026, Qnity Electronics closed at $118.36, a change of +29% over the past year and 62.9% above its 52-week low. The Intrinsic Value model puts the shares at $85.68, a gap of −27.6% to the price, so the price sits well above intrinsic value. The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −0.75% and a probability of a rise of 17%. The published 63-session view also leans down, with an expected return of −2.61%.
Next month: why the model view is negative
The 21-session view leans down at −0.75%, with a probability of a rise of only 17% and a band from −10.3% to +8.8%. The strongest facts on that side are the strong risk-off market regime and a close that has slipped −9.2% below its 200-day average after a strong year, a pattern of momentum fading. The history points the other way. Across the 200 past situations most like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +2.7%, and 69% of them rose. That is history, not a forecast, and it does not agree with the model's lean.
Next 3 months: model view negative
The 63-session view also leans down, at −2.61%, inside a band from −18.2% to +12.9% that still reaches into positive ground. It rests on a weak Piotroski score of 2 out of nine, a price that stands −27.6% away from intrinsic value, and a risk-off backdrop. The past situations like today's did better than that: their median move over the next 63 sessions was +2.6%, and 63% of them rose. That is history, not a forecast. Here both published views point the same way, down, so the gap is between the model and the historical analogues, which were matched on only seven measures.
The long term
The long-term case is mixed. Intrinsic value of $85.68 sits below the $118.36 close by −27.6%, and a price-to-book multiple of 3.46 adds little support from valuation. Against that, revenue grew +21.9% over the past year, operating cash flow reached $1.14B, and debt to equity of 0.51 is moderate. The Piotroski score of 2 flags weak financial health, though. Past situations like today's had a median return of +7.4% over the following year, and 68% of them rose. That history is not a forecast. The near-term views lean down on regime and health signals, while growth, cash flow and the analogues show a firmer picture.
How sure we are
The record on Qnity Electronics gives the 21-session view some weight. 62% of its 228 matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction of the outcome, above the base rate of about half across all names. The historical comparison rests on 200 past situations, a reasonable sample, but they were matched on seven measures rather than the full picture. The bands are wide, from −10.3% to +8.8% over 21 sessions and from −18.2% to +12.9% over 63 sessions, so the outcomes on either side of the lean remain broad.