The view
As of 13 November 2026, FedEx Freight closed at $133.93. The reading does not carry a one-year return figure, so the year is described only through the measures below. The Intrinsic Value model puts the shares at $67.34, a gap of −49.7% against the price, so the price sits well above intrinsic value. The published 21-session view expects −0.97%, with a band from −6.4% to +4.5% and a probability of a rise of 18%. The published 63-session view expects −2.16%, with a band from −11.2% to +6.9%.
Next month: why the model view is negative
The published 21-session view leans down, with an expected return of −0.97% and a probability of a rise of only 18%. The strongest facts on that side are the strong risk-off market regime, a Piotroski score of 0 out of nine, and a balance sheet showing negative equity, with price-to-book at -64.90 and debt to equity at -16.67. The history points the other way. Across 200 past situations like today's, the median move over the next 21 sessions was +2.7%, and 69% of them rose. These are past outcomes, not a forecast, and they do not agree with the model's lean.
Next 3 months: model view negative
The published 63-session view also leans down, expecting −2.16% within a band from −11.2% to +6.9%. Both horizons point the same way, so there is no conflict between the two published views. The facts carrying the lean are the same weak financial-health score of 0, negative book equity, and a price far above intrinsic value. The 200 past situations like today's again lean the opposite way. Their median move over the next three months was +2.6%, and 64% of them rose. That history is a record of what followed, not a projection, and it sits against the model here.
The long term
For FedEx Freight, the long-term case rests mainly on valuation and balance-sheet strength, and both look strained. Intrinsic value of $67.34 sits far below the price, a gap of −49.7%. Price-to-book of -64.90 and debt to equity of -16.67 reflect negative shareholder equity. A Piotroski score of 0 marks the weakest possible reading on financial health. No sector valuation, return-on-capital or cash-flow figures are available in this reading. The past situations like today's, which are history rather than a forecast, rose over the following year in 68% of cases, with a median of +7.9%. The model's near-term caution and the valuation facts align with each other, while that history does not.
How sure we are
The 21-session view carries above-average weight on this name. Its matured 21-session forecasts matched the direction in 78% of 51 cases, against a base rate of about half across all names. The comparison history rests on 200 past situations, a reasonable sample. Those situations were matched on only seven measures, not on the full feature set. The bands are wide relative to the expected moves: −6.4% to +4.5% over 21 sessions and −11.2% to +6.9% over 63 sessions. Neither expected return is large compared with that spread, so the longer horizons deserve more caution than the near one.