Learn · Refutation Ledger

What is a Refutation Ledger?

Reviewed against the platform's code on Sep 23, 2026

A Refutation Ledger is a public record of what happened after each investment decision — the prediction, the position, the outcome, the benchmark, and any fault or change — kept with the failures in, so that anyone can check the process against all of its results rather than the flattering ones.

Why it matters

A track record you can only read when it flatters the author is not a record. Publishing failures, unmeasured periods and known faults is what makes the successes believable.

How it works

Each entry is written after the fact and never edited to look better: what was believed, what was done, what happened, and what changed because of it. Missing measurements are marked as missing, not as zero.

Questions

Why publish failures?
Because a process is judged by its whole record. Hiding failures makes every success impossible to evaluate.
Is an unmeasured week counted as flat?
No. An unmeasured week is excluded and counted separately; treating it as zero would quietly change the result.
Can a reader check the ledger?
Yes. Every closed week lists its names and prices, so anyone with a price feed can recompute it.

Educational content about research methods. Not investment advice.